Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT, 22 February–9 March 2016

Areas included: Flanders

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 27.3% 25.5–29.1% 25.0–29.6% 24.6–30.1% 23.8–31.0%
CD&V 11.6% 19.1% 17.6–20.8% 17.2–21.2% 16.8–21.7% 16.1–22.5%
sp.a 8.8% 14.7% 13.4–16.2% 13.0–16.7% 12.7–17.0% 12.0–17.8%
Open Vld 9.8% 14.1% 12.8–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.5–17.2%
Groen 5.3% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.1–13.4% 9.8–13.8% 9.3–14.5%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
PVDA 1.8% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 27 24–29 24–29 23–29 23–31
CD&V 18 18 16–19 16–20 15–21 14–22
sp.a 13 13 12–15 12–15 11–16 10–17
Open Vld 14 12 11–14 11–14 11–15 11–17
Groen 6 10 8–12 8–12 8–12 7–12
Vlaams Belang 3 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 3–8
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 4% 99.8%  
24 8% 96%  
25 10% 88%  
26 21% 78%  
27 33% 56% Median
28 13% 23%  
29 8% 10%  
30 1.5% 2%  
31 0.7% 0.8%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.8%  
15 3% 99.0%  
16 6% 96%  
17 18% 90%  
18 46% 71% Last Result, Median
19 17% 26%  
20 5% 9%  
21 2% 3%  
22 1.0% 1.0%  
23 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 1.4% 99.5%  
11 3% 98%  
12 6% 95%  
13 63% 89% Last Result, Median
14 16% 26%  
15 7% 10%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.9% 1.0%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.9%  
11 25% 99.5%  
12 33% 74% Median
13 31% 41%  
14 6% 10% Last Result
15 3% 4%  
16 0.7% 1.2%  
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100% Last Result
7 0.6% 99.8%  
8 13% 99.1%  
9 13% 86%  
10 29% 74% Median
11 14% 44%  
12 30% 30%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
4 0.7% 99.4%  
5 20% 98.8%  
6 17% 79%  
7 35% 62% Median
8 26% 26%  
9 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | |:———:|:———–:|:——:|:———:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations