Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT, 14 September–3 October 2016

Areas included: Flanders

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 27.8% 26.1–29.7% 25.6–30.2% 25.2–30.7% 24.3–31.6%
CD&V 11.6% 16.8% 15.4–18.4% 15.0–18.8% 14.6–19.2% 14.0–20.0%
sp.a 8.8% 15.8% 14.4–17.3% 14.0–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.0–18.9%
Open Vld 9.8% 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 12.0–15.5% 11.7–15.9% 11.1–16.6%
Groen 5.3% 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.7–15.2% 11.4–15.6% 10.8–16.3%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
PVDA 1.8% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 27 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–31
CD&V 18 15 13–18 13–18 13–18 13–18
sp.a 13 14 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–18
Open Vld 14 12 11–13 11–13 11–14 10–16
Groen 6 12 11–12 10–12 10–13 9–15
Vlaams Belang 3 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 3–8
PVDA 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 6% 99.2%  
25 9% 93%  
26 21% 84%  
27 29% 63% Median
28 17% 35%  
29 11% 18%  
30 4% 7%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 23% 99.9%  
14 16% 77%  
15 21% 61% Median
16 17% 41%  
17 10% 24%  
18 13% 14% Last Result
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.4% 99.9%  
12 1.0% 99.5%  
13 40% 98% Last Result
14 19% 59% Median
15 25% 40%  
16 7% 14%  
17 5% 7%  
18 1.4% 1.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.8%  
10 1.2% 99.6%  
11 21% 98%  
12 54% 77% Median
13 20% 23%  
14 2% 3% Last Result
15 0.8% 1.4%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.5% 99.8%  
10 6% 98%  
11 10% 92%  
12 78% 83% Median
13 3% 5%  
14 1.1% 2%  
15 0.9% 1.1%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
4 0.5% 99.3%  
5 10% 98.8%  
6 23% 89%  
7 42% 66% Median
8 24% 24%  
9 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | |:———:|:———–:|:——:|:———:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations