Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT, 27 March–11 April 2017

Areas included: Flanders

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 20.3% 26.3% 24.6–28.1% 24.1–28.6% 23.7–29.1% 22.9–30.0%
CD&V 11.6% 18.6% 17.2–20.3% 16.7–20.7% 16.4–21.1% 15.7–21.9%
Groen 5.3% 14.7% 13.3–16.1% 12.9–16.6% 12.6–17.0% 12.0–17.7%
Open Vld 9.8% 14.4% 13.1–15.9% 12.7–16.3% 12.4–16.7% 11.8–17.4%
sp.a 8.8% 13.2% 11.9–14.6% 11.6–15.1% 11.3–15.4% 10.7–16.1%
Vlaams Belang 3.7% 7.8% 6.8–8.9% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
PVDA 1.8% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 33 25 23–27 23–28 22–28 21–29
CD&V 18 18 16–18 15–19 14–20 14–21
Groen 6 12 12–14 11–15 11–16 10–17
Open Vld 14 13 11–14 11–14 11–14 11–17
sp.a 13 12 10–13 9–14 9–14 9–15
Vlaams Belang 3 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 2–8
PVDA 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–3

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.3%  
23 9% 96%  
24 15% 87%  
25 26% 71% Median
26 21% 45%  
27 18% 25%  
28 6% 7%  
29 0.7% 1.0%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 4% 99.8%  
15 5% 95%  
16 10% 91%  
17 18% 80%  
18 53% 63% Last Result, Median
19 5% 9%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.9% 1.2%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.7% 100%  
11 5% 99.3%  
12 68% 94% Median
13 10% 26%  
14 6% 16%  
15 5% 10%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.6% 0.6%  
18 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 16% 99.9%  
12 24% 84%  
13 47% 61% Median
14 12% 14% Last Result
15 1.0% 2%  
16 0.5% 1.3%  
17 0.6% 0.8%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 7% 99.9%  
10 20% 93%  
11 21% 73%  
12 16% 52% Median
13 29% 37% Last Result
14 7% 7%  
15 0.6% 0.6%  
16 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.6% 100%  
3 0.8% 99.4% Last Result
4 0.9% 98.6%  
5 24% 98%  
6 28% 73% Median
7 39% 45%  
8 7% 7%  
9 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 68% 95% Median
2 22% 27%  
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | |:———:|:———–:|:——:|:———:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations