Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Nieuwsblad, 13–17 December 2018
Areas included: Flanders
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N-VA | 20.3% | 30.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
CD&V | 11.6% | 15.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Groen | 5.3% | 13.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Vlaams Belang | 3.7% | 12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Open Vld | 9.8% | 11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
sp.a | 8.8% | 9.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
PVDA | 1.8% | 5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N-VA | 33 | 29 | 28–32 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–34 |
CD&V | 18 | 14 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 11–18 |
Groen | 6 | 12 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
Vlaams Belang | 3 | 10 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 7–13 |
Open Vld | 14 | 11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
sp.a | 13 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 5–11 |
PVDA | 0 | 3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–6 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
25 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
26 | 2% | 99.0% | |
27 | 5% | 97% | |
28 | 9% | 93% | |
29 | 45% | 84% | Median |
30 | 20% | 39% | |
31 | 10% | 20% | |
32 | 4% | 10% | |
33 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
34 | 3% | 3% | |
35 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
36 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
11 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
12 | 2% | 98.7% | |
13 | 28% | 97% | |
14 | 32% | 69% | Median |
15 | 15% | 37% | |
16 | 14% | 22% | |
17 | 5% | 8% | |
18 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
20 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
10 | 5% | 99.9% | |
11 | 32% | 95% | |
12 | 36% | 62% | Median |
13 | 19% | 27% | |
14 | 5% | 8% | |
15 | 2% | 3% | |
16 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
18 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
4 | 0% | 100% | |
5 | 0% | 100% | |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0.7% | 100% | |
8 | 25% | 99.3% | |
9 | 12% | 74% | |
10 | 15% | 62% | Median |
11 | 23% | 47% | |
12 | 15% | 25% | |
13 | 9% | 9% | |
14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
15 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
8 | 15% | 99.7% | |
9 | 13% | 85% | |
10 | 18% | 72% | |
11 | 20% | 54% | Median |
12 | 34% | 35% | |
13 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
15 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0.8% | 100% | |
6 | 18% | 99.1% | |
7 | 14% | 82% | |
8 | 22% | 67% | Median |
9 | 39% | 46% | |
10 | 3% | 6% | |
11 | 4% | 4% | |
12 | 0% | 0% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 14% | 100% | |
2 | 28% | 86% | |
3 | 53% | 58% | Median |
4 | 3% | 5% | |
5 | 0.9% | 2% | |
6 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | |:———:|:———–:|:——:|:———:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Nieuwsblad
- Fieldwork period: 13–17 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.31%