Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 6 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0.0% 25.3% 24.3–26.3% 24.0–26.6% 23.8–26.9% 23.3–27.4%
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0.0% 12.6% 11.9–13.4% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.1–14.3%
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.3% 7.7–9.0% 7.5–9.2% 7.4–9.4% 7.1–9.7%
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0.0% 8.3% 7.7–9.0% 7.5–9.2% 7.4–9.4% 7.1–9.7%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) 0.0% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Democraten 66 (RE) 0.0% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) 0.0% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) 0.0% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
ChristenUnie (EPP) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK (*) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0 10 10 10 9–11 9–11
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0 5 5 5 5 5
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3 3 3 3
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0 3 3 3 3 3–4
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Democraten 66 (RE) 0 3 3 3 3 2–3
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 1
ChristenUnie (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
DENK (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 3% 100%  
10 93% 97% Median
11 4% 4%  
12 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 100% 100% Median

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 99.6% 100% Median
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 98.7% 100% Median
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 6% 100%  
3 94% 94% Median
4 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 100%  
3 99.5% 99.5% Median
4 0% 0%  

Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 100% 100% Median

Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

ChristenUnie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

DENK (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Forum voor Democratie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0 10 0% 10 10 9–11 9–11
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) 0 8 0% 8 8 8 7–8
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 3 0% 3 3 3 3
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0 3 0% 3 3 3 3–4
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 3% 100%  
10 93% 97% Median
11 4% 4%  
12 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.5% 100%  
8 99.5% 99.5% Median
9 0% 0%  

GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 99.6% 100% Median
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 98.7% 100% Median
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations