Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O for EenVandaag, 26–29 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0.0% 25.8% 24.8–28.4% 24.4–28.9% 23.9–29.4% 23.1–30.3%
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0.0% 13.4% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.2% 11.4–17.0%
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.7% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6% 7.3–10.9% 6.9–11.5%
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0.0% 8.7% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6% 7.3–10.9% 6.9–11.5%
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) 0.0% 7.3% 6.3–8.4% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.6%
Democraten 66 (RE) 0.0% 6.5% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) 0.0% 5.7% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.6% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.1%
DENK (*) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.3%
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0.0% 2.3% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0.0% 2.2% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.2% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
ChristenUnie (EPP) 0.0% 1.8% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.6%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0 10 10 9–11 9–11 9–11
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0 6 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–6
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2–3 2–3
Democraten 66 (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
DENK (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
ChristenUnie (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 100%  
9 6% 99.6%  
10 85% 94% Median
11 8% 9%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 4% 100%  
5 42% 96%  
6 54% 54% Median
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 89% 99.8% Median
4 10% 11%  
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 41% 99.8%  
4 59% 59% Median
5 0% 0%  

Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 97% 100% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 64% 99.6% Median
3 36% 36%  
4 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 98.6% 99.7% Median
3 1.1% 1.1%  
4 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 92% 92% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 39% 40%  
2 0% 0%  

DENK (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0 10 0% 10 9–11 9–11 9–11
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) 0 8 0% 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–8
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 100%  
9 6% 99.6%  
10 85% 94% Median
11 8% 9%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 3% 100%  
7 11% 97%  
8 87% 87% Median
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 89% 99.8% Median
4 10% 11%  
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 41% 99.8%  
4 59% 59% Median
5 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 40% 40%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations