Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 13–16 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.8–28.2% | 25.5–28.6% | 25.2–28.9% | 24.6–29.5% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 13.2% | 12.3–14.1% | 12.0–14.4% | 11.8–14.7% | 11.4–15.1% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 7.1–8.6% | 7.0–8.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.5–9.4% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 7.1–8.6% | 7.0–8.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.5–9.4% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.7–8.2% | 6.5–8.4% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.1–8.9% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.6–6.9% | 5.4–7.1% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.0–7.7% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.9–5.0% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.4–5.6% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.9–5.0% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.4–5.6% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.8–4.9% | 3.6–5.1% | 3.5–5.2% | 3.3–5.5% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.3–4.4% | 3.2–4.5% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.7–3.6% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.2% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.5% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.5–2.2% | 1.4–2.4% | 1.3–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 9–11 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 10 | 19% | 99.2% | |
| 11 | 80% | 80% | Median |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 93% | 95% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 99.2% | 99.6% | Median |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 11% | 100% | |
| 3 | 68% | 89% | Median |
| 4 | 21% | 21% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 39% | 39% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 10% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 90% | Median |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 52% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 48% | 48% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 79% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 75% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 25% | 25% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 15% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 11 | 0% | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 9–11 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 10 | 19% | 99.2% | |
| 11 | 80% | 80% | Median |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 61% | 98% | Median |
| 8 | 36% | 37% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 85% | 99.8% | Median |
| 4 | 15% | 15% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 11% | 100% | |
| 3 | 68% | 89% | Median |
| 4 | 21% | 21% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 49% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 51% | 51% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 75% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 25% | 25% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 13–16 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2208
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.13%