Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 20–23 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 25.9% | 24.6–27.2% | 24.3–27.6% | 24.0–27.9% | 23.4–28.5% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 11.8% | 10.9–12.8% | 10.7–13.1% | 10.4–13.3% | 10.0–13.8% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.1% | 7.3–8.9% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.8% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 8.1% | 7.3–8.9% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.8% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.7–8.2% | 6.5–8.4% | 6.3–8.6% | 6.0–9.0% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 6.9% | 6.2–7.7% | 6.0–7.9% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.6–8.5% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.3–4.4% | 3.1–4.6% | 3.0–4.7% | 2.8–5.1% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.3–4.4% | 3.1–4.6% | 3.0–4.7% | 2.8–5.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.9–4.0% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.5–4.6% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.7% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.7–3.6% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.8% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 47% | 100% | |
| 10 | 42% | 53% | Median |
| 11 | 11% | 11% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 91% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 56% | 99.8% | Median |
| 4 | 44% | 44% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 59% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 40% | 40% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 91% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 9% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 94% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 14% | 100% | |
| 2 | 86% | 86% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 94% | Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.9% | 99.6% | Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.0% | 99.1% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 53% | 53% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 58% | 58% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 62% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 38% | 38% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 47% | 100% | |
| 10 | 42% | 53% | Median |
| 11 | 11% | 11% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 86% | 100% | Median |
| 7 | 13% | 14% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 47% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 5 | 44% | 44% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 59% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 40% | 40% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 15% | 100% | |
| 3 | 85% | 85% | Median |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 58% | 58% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 20–23 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1950
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.87%