Opinion Poll by Verian for EenVandaag, 20–23 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 27.3% | 25.9–28.8% | 25.5–29.2% | 25.2–29.6% | 24.5–30.3% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 15.3% | 14.2–16.5% | 13.9–16.9% | 13.6–17.2% | 13.1–17.8% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.1–9.9% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.7–10.5% | 7.3–11.0% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.1–9.9% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.7–10.5% | 7.3–11.0% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.7% | 5.9–7.5% | 5.7–7.8% | 5.5–8.0% | 5.2–8.4% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.6–7.7% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.7% | 4.1–5.4% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.7–5.8% | 3.5–6.2% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.3–4.6% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.3% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.8–3.9% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.3% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.8–3.9% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.3% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.8–3.9% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.2–3.1% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.2–3.1% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.2–3.1% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 46% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 28% | 53% | Median |
| 12 | 26% | 26% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 31% | 100% | |
| 6 | 48% | 69% | Median |
| 7 | 21% | 21% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 88% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 34% | 100% | |
| 4 | 33% | 66% | Median |
| 5 | 33% | 33% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 68% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 32% | 32% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 99.8% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 73% | 74% | Median |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 93% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 11 | 0% | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 46% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 28% | 53% | Median |
| 12 | 26% | 26% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 30% | 100% | |
| 8 | 47% | 70% | Median |
| 9 | 22% | 22% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 34% | 100% | |
| 4 | 33% | 66% | Median |
| 5 | 33% | 33% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 14% | 15% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 31% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 68% | 69% | Median |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Verian
- Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
- Fieldwork period: 20–23 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1607
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.64%