Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 28 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0.0% 26.6% 25.6–27.7% 25.3–28.0% 25.1–28.3% 24.6–28.8%
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0.0% 12.6% 11.9–13.4% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.1–14.3%
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0.0% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) 0.0% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Democraten 66 (RE) 0.0% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) 0.0% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) 0.0% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
DENK (*) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
ChristenUnie (EPP) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0 10 10–11 10–11 10–11 10–11
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0 5 5 5 4–5 4–5
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3 3 3–4 3–4
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) 0 3 3 3 3 3–4
Democraten 66 (RE) 0 3 3 3 2–3 2–3
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
DENK (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
ChristenUnie (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 76% 100% Median
11 24% 24%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 3% 100%  
5 97% 97% Median
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 96% 100% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 9% 100%  
4 91% 91% Median
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 99.1% 99.9% Median
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 96% 96% Median
4 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 18% 100%  
2 82% 82% Median
3 0% 0%  

Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 96% 96% Median
2 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 7%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

DENK (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0 10 0% 10–11 10–11 10–11 10–11
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) 0 8 0% 8 7–8 7–8 7–8
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 3 0% 3 3 3–4 3–4
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0 4 0% 4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 76% 100% Median
11 24% 24%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.2% 100%  
7 7% 99.8%  
8 93% 93% Median
9 0% 0%  

GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 96% 100% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 9% 100%  
4 91% 91% Median
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 7%  
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations