Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 12 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0.0% 24.6% 23.6–25.7% 23.4–26.0% 23.1–26.2% 22.6–26.7%
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0.0% 13.3% 12.5–14.1% 12.3–14.4% 12.1–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) 0.0% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0.0% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Democraten 66 (RE) 0.0% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) 0.0% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
DENK (*) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
ChristenUnie (EPP) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0 10 10–11 10–11 9–11 9–11
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Democraten 66 (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
DENK (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
ChristenUnie (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 4% 100%  
10 80% 96% Median
11 16% 16%  
12 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 70% 99.5% Median
6 30% 30%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 22% 100%  
4 78% 78% Median
5 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 10% 100%  
3 82% 90% Median
4 8% 8%  
5 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 45% 100%  
4 55% 55% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 18% 100%  
3 82% 82% Median
4 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 56% 100% Median
2 44% 44%  
3 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.4% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

DENK (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

ChristenUnie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Forum voor Democratie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0 10 0% 10–11 10–11 9–11 9–11
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) 0 8 0% 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–2
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 4% 100%  
10 80% 96% Median
11 16% 16%  
12 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 8% 100%  
8 72% 92% Median
9 20% 20%  
10 0% 0%  

GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 22% 100%  
4 78% 78% Median
5 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 45% 100%  
4 55% 55% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.4% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie (ESN)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations