Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 18–21 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 24.8% | 23.6–26.0% | 23.3–26.4% | 23.0–26.7% | 22.4–27.3% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 13.5% | 12.6–14.5% | 12.3–14.8% | 12.1–15.0% | 11.7–15.5% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.6–9.2% | 7.4–9.4% | 7.3–9.6% | 6.9–10.0% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.6–9.2% | 7.4–9.4% | 7.3–9.6% | 6.9–10.0% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.6–8.1% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.2–8.5% | 5.9–8.9% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.4–7.9% | 6.2–8.1% | 6.1–8.3% | 5.8–8.6% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.6–5.9% | 4.5–6.0% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.5% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.8% | 4.3–5.5% | 4.1–5.6% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.7–6.1% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.1–4.2% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.7–4.8% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–4.0% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–4.0% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.4% | 2.1–3.5% | 1.9–3.7% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.6–3.4% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.8–2.6% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.0–1.9% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 22% | 100% | |
| 10 | 68% | 78% | Median |
| 11 | 10% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 87% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 12% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 79% | 92% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 88% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 47% | 100% | |
| 3 | 53% | 53% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 45% | 100% | |
| 3 | 55% | 55% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 41% | 100% | |
| 2 | 59% | 59% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 55% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 45% | 45% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 39% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 61% | 61% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 41% | 41% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 67% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 33% | 33% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 67% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 33% | 33% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 22% | 100% | |
| 10 | 68% | 78% | Median |
| 11 | 10% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 7 | 36% | 99.4% | |
| 8 | 62% | 63% | Median |
| 9 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 88% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 79% | 92% | Median |
| 4 | 13% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 24% | 100% | |
| 3 | 48% | 76% | Median |
| 4 | 28% | 28% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 67% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 33% | 33% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 18–21 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2143
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.97%