Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 9–11 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 23.7% | 22.5–25.0% | 22.2–25.3% | 21.9–25.6% | 21.3–26.2% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 13.9% | 13.0–15.0% | 12.7–15.2% | 12.5–15.5% | 12.0–16.0% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.1% | 7.4–9.0% | 7.2–9.2% | 7.0–9.4% | 6.7–9.8% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 8.1% | 7.4–9.0% | 7.2–9.2% | 7.0–9.4% | 6.7–9.8% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 7.6% | 6.9–8.4% | 6.7–8.7% | 6.5–8.9% | 6.2–9.3% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.6–8.1% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.2–8.5% | 5.9–8.9% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.6–5.9% | 4.5–6.1% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.0–6.6% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.8% | 4.2–5.5% | 4.1–5.7% | 3.9–5.8% | 3.7–6.2% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.2–4.3% | 3.1–4.5% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.7–4.9% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.4% | 2.1–3.5% | 1.9–3.8% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.6–3.4% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.8% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.5–3.3% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.8% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.5–3.3% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.7% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.5–3.2% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.7% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.5–3.2% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–10 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 9 | 64% | 99.2% | Median |
| 10 | 35% | 35% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 77% | 99.9% | Median |
| 6 | 23% | 23% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 40% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 60% | 60% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 94% | 98.8% | Median |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 31% | 100% | |
| 3 | 68% | 69% | Median |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 67% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 33% | 33% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 85% | 86% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–10 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 9 | 64% | 99.2% | Median |
| 10 | 35% | 35% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 27% | 100% | |
| 8 | 54% | 73% | Median |
| 9 | 18% | 19% | |
| 10 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 40% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 59% | 60% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 94% | 98.8% | Median |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 12% | 98.6% | |
| 4 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–11 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2020
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.41%