Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 6–9 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 23.2% | 22.0–24.5% | 21.7–24.9% | 21.4–25.2% | 20.8–25.8% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 14.1% | 13.1–15.2% | 12.8–15.5% | 12.6–15.7% | 12.1–16.2% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7.9–9.6% | 7.7–9.8% | 7.5–10.0% | 7.1–10.5% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7.9–9.6% | 7.7–9.8% | 7.5–10.0% | 7.1–10.5% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.4–7.9% | 6.2–8.2% | 6.1–8.4% | 5.7–8.8% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.4–7.9% | 6.2–8.2% | 6.1–8.4% | 5.7–8.8% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.3–5.6% | 4.1–5.8% | 4.0–5.9% | 3.7–6.3% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 4.0–5.2% | 3.8–5.4% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.4–5.9% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.9% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.4% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.1–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.7–3.6% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.8% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.5–3.3% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.6% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.1% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.6% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.1% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.6% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.1% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–1.9% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.1–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 24% | 98.7% | |
| 10 | 73% | 75% | Median |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 59% | 100% | Median |
| 6 | 41% | 41% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 65% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 35% | 35% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 91% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 9% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 31% | 100% | |
| 3 | 29% | 69% | Median |
| 4 | 40% | 40% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 9% | 100% | |
| 3 | 85% | 91% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 30% | 100% | |
| 2 | 70% | 70% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 86% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 14% | 14% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 18% | 18% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 71% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 29% | 29% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 24% | 98.7% | |
| 10 | 73% | 75% | Median |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 55% | 100% | Median |
| 9 | 14% | 45% | |
| 10 | 31% | 31% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 11% | 100% | |
| 3 | 40% | 89% | Median |
| 4 | 49% | 49% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 9% | 100% | |
| 3 | 85% | 91% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 24% | 100% | |
| 3 | 69% | 76% | Median |
| 4 | 7% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–9 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1925
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.69%