Opinion Poll by Verian for EenVandaag, 24–28 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 24.3% | 22.9–25.7% | 22.5–26.1% | 22.2–26.4% | 21.6–27.1% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 15.3% | 14.2–16.5% | 13.9–16.9% | 13.6–17.1% | 13.1–17.8% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 10.4% | 9.4–11.4% | 9.2–11.7% | 8.9–12.0% | 8.5–12.5% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.6–9.4% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.2–10.0% | 6.8–10.4% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.6–9.4% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.2–10.0% | 6.8–10.4% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 6.1–7.7% | 5.9–8.0% | 5.7–8.2% | 5.3–8.6% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.1% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.4–4.8% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.3–4.6% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.6–3.7% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.4% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.7% | 1.9–4.0% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.8% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.8% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.4% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.3% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.8% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.4–2.2% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.0–2.7% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.7–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 8% | 100% | |
| 9 | 76% | 92% | Median |
| 10 | 12% | 16% | |
| 11 | 4% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 12% | 100% | |
| 6 | 83% | 88% | Median |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 86% | 92% | Median |
| 5 | 6% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 87% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 13% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 22% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 7% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 18% | 83% | |
| 2 | 65% | 65% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 20% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 17% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 13% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 8% | 100% | |
| 9 | 76% | 92% | Median |
| 10 | 12% | 16% | |
| 11 | 4% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 10% | 100% | |
| 8 | 84% | 90% | Median |
| 9 | 3% | 6% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 78% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 11% | 22% | |
| 5 | 11% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 22% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 14% | 98% | |
| 2 | 18% | 83% | |
| 3 | 65% | 65% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Verian
- Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
- Fieldwork period: 24–28 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1583
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.93%