Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 17–20 January 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.9–23.2% | 20.6–23.5% | 20.3–23.8% | 19.8–24.3% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 13.4% | 12.5–14.4% | 12.3–14.6% | 12.1–14.9% | 11.6–15.3% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 10.1% | 9.3–11.0% | 9.1–11.2% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.6–11.8% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.5–9.0% | 7.3–9.2% | 7.1–9.4% | 6.8–9.8% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 7.1–8.5% | 6.9–8.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.3% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 7.1–8.5% | 6.9–8.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.3% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.6% | 4.1–5.2% | 3.9–5.4% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.9% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.8–4.9% | 3.6–5.0% | 3.5–5.2% | 3.3–5.5% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.3–4.4% | 3.2–4.5% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.8–3.7% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.5% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.7% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.5–3.1% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.6–2.3% | 1.5–2.4% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.8% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.4–2.1% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 35% | 100% | |
| 9 | 62% | 65% | Median |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 73% | 96% | Median |
| 6 | 23% | 23% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 91% | 94% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 98% | 99.0% | Median |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 93% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 64% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 36% | 36% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 99.6% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.5% | 99.0% | Median |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 54% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 46% | 46% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 20% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 13% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 35% | 100% | |
| 9 | 62% | 65% | Median |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 7% | 100% | |
| 8 | 69% | 93% | Median |
| 9 | 24% | 24% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 78% | 99.5% | Median |
| 4 | 21% | 21% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 93% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 56% | 99.3% | Median |
| 3 | 43% | 43% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 17–20 January 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2267
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.28%