Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 14–17 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 21.9% | 20.8–23.1% | 20.5–23.4% | 20.2–23.7% | 19.6–24.3% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 12.6% | 11.7–13.5% | 11.4–13.8% | 11.2–14.1% | 10.8–14.5% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 10.1% | 9.3–11.0% | 9.1–11.3% | 8.9–11.5% | 8.5–11.9% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.7% | 7.0–8.5% | 6.8–8.7% | 6.6–8.9% | 6.3–9.3% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.7% | 7.0–8.5% | 6.8–8.7% | 6.6–8.9% | 6.3–9.3% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 6.9% | 6.2–7.7% | 6.1–7.9% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.6–8.4% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.6% | 5.0–6.3% | 4.8–6.5% | 4.7–6.6% | 4.4–7.0% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.5–5.8% | 4.4–6.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.5% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.7–3.7% | 2.6–3.8% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.3–4.2% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.1–4.0% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.9–2.7% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.5–3.2% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.9–2.7% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.5–3.2% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.5% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.6–2.3% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.2–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 56% | 100% | Median |
| 9 | 5% | 44% | |
| 10 | 39% | 39% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 98% | 99.1% | Median |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 97% | 99.5% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 98% | 99.5% | Median |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.6% | 99.6% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 43% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 57% | 57% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 55% | 55% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7 | 7 | 7–8 | 6–8 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 56% | 100% | Median |
| 9 | 5% | 44% | |
| 10 | 39% | 39% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 95% | 98% | Median |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 41% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 59% | 59% | Median |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 98% | 99.5% | Median |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 55% | 55% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 14–17 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2115
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.66%