Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 9–12 May 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 18.3% | 17.3–19.4% | 17.0–19.7% | 16.7–20.0% | 16.2–20.5% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 16.7% | 15.7–17.8% | 15.4–18.1% | 15.2–18.4% | 14.7–18.9% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 11.1% | 10.3–12.0% | 10.0–12.3% | 9.8–12.5% | 9.4–13.0% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 8.3–9.9% | 8.1–10.1% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.8% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 8.3–9.9% | 8.1–10.1% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.8% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 7.7% | 7.0–8.5% | 6.8–8.7% | 6.6–8.9% | 6.3–9.3% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.9–5.0% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.4–5.7% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.0–5.2% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.6–3.4% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.8% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.3% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 1.0–1.6% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 37% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 60% | 62% | Median |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 17% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 83% | 83% | Median |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 95% | 99.8% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 49% | 100% | |
| 4 | 50% | 51% | Median |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 38% | 39% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 12% | 100% | |
| 3 | 88% | 88% | Median |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 79% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 20% | 20% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 71% | 91% | Median |
| 2 | 20% | 20% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 16% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 13% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–11 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 25% | 98% | |
| 10 | 72% | 73% | Median |
| 11 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 37% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 60% | 62% | Median |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 49% | 100% | |
| 4 | 51% | 51% | Median |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 38% | 39% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 66% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 30% | 31% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 16% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 14% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–12 May 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2143
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.15%