Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 5–6 June 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 19.0% | 18.0–20.1% | 17.7–20.4% | 17.4–20.7% | 16.9–21.2% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 14.8% | 13.9–15.8% | 13.6–16.1% | 13.4–16.4% | 13.0–16.8% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 11.8% | 10.9–12.7% | 10.7–13.0% | 10.5–13.2% | 10.1–13.6% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.7–9.2% | 7.5–9.4% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–10.0% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.7–9.2% | 7.5–9.4% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–10.0% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.5–9.0% | 7.3–9.2% | 7.1–9.4% | 6.8–9.8% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.6–5.9% | 4.5–6.1% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.1–6.5% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.1–4.1% | 2.9–4.2% | 2.8–4.4% | 2.6–4.6% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.8–3.7% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.3–4.3% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.6% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.6% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.4% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 2.0–2.8% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.3% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.6% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.5–3.1% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.4–2.1% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 56% | 99.8% | Median |
| 8 | 43% | 43% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 25% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 72% | 75% | Median |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 39% | 39% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 45% | 100% | |
| 4 | 55% | 55% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 7% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 95% | 99.5% | Median |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 56% | 70% | Median |
| 2 | 14% | 14% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 62% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 75% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 25% | 25% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 23% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 74% | 77% | Median |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 56% | 99.8% | Median |
| 8 | 43% | 43% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 45% | 100% | |
| 4 | 55% | 55% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 7% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 33% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 53% | 66% | Median |
| 4 | 14% | 14% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 62% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 73% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 27% | 27% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 5–6 June 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2248
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.21%