Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 13–16 June 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 19.2% | 18.2–20.3% | 17.9–20.6% | 17.6–20.9% | 17.1–21.4% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 15.4% | 14.5–16.4% | 14.2–16.7% | 14.0–17.0% | 13.5–17.5% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 13.6% | 12.7–14.6% | 12.4–14.8% | 12.2–15.1% | 11.8–15.5% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 8.4–10.0% | 8.2–10.2% | 8.0–10.4% | 7.7–10.8% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 8.4–10.0% | 8.2–10.2% | 8.0–10.4% | 7.7–10.8% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 7.2% | 6.5–7.9% | 6.3–8.2% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.7% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.6–4.7% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.3% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.1–4.2% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.7–4.7% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.5% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.4% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.4% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 2.0–2.8% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.3% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.9–2.7% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.5–3.2% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.9–2.7% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.5–3.2% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 52% | 100% | Median |
| 8 | 44% | 47% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 7% | 100% | |
| 6 | 76% | 93% | Median |
| 7 | 17% | 17% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 81% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 17% | 17% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 32% | 100% | |
| 4 | 66% | 68% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 60% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 39% | 40% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 28% | 100% | |
| 3 | 72% | 72% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 98.5% | Median |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 83% | 86% | Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 32% | 32% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 19% | 98% | |
| 9 | 73% | 79% | Median |
| 10 | 6% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 52% | 100% | Median |
| 8 | 44% | 47% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 32% | 100% | |
| 4 | 65% | 68% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 60% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 39% | 40% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 83% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 7% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) – Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 13–16 June 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2253
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.78%