Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O for Pauw & De Wit, 29 August–1 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 19.5% | 18.4–20.7% | 18.1–21.0% | 17.8–21.3% | 17.3–21.9% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 16.1% | 15.1–17.2% | 14.8–17.5% | 14.6–17.8% | 14.1–18.4% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 9.7% | 8.9–10.6% | 8.7–10.9% | 8.5–11.1% | 8.1–11.5% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.7–8.2% | 6.5–8.4% | 6.3–8.6% | 6.0–9.0% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.7–8.2% | 6.5–8.4% | 6.3–8.6% | 6.0–9.0% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.7–8.2% | 6.5–8.4% | 6.3–8.6% | 6.0–9.0% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.4–6.8% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.1–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.8–5.0% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.5–5.3% | 3.3–5.6% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.6–4.8% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.3–5.1% | 3.1–5.4% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.3–4.4% | 3.2–4.6% | 3.0–4.8% | 2.8–5.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.5–3.5% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–4.0% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.7% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.8% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–3.0% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–3.0% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 27% | 100% | |
| 8 | 73% | 73% | Median |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 95% | 99.9% | Median |
| 7 | 5% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 91% | 92% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 98.8% | 98.8% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 73% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 27% | 27% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 73% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 26% | 27% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.4% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.6% | 99.6% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 31% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 69% | 69% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 27% | 100% | |
| 8 | 73% | 73% | Median |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 75% | 97% | Median |
| 7 | 22% | 22% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 95% | 99.2% | Median |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 73% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 26% | 27% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 96% | 99.8% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): Pauw & De Wit
- Fieldwork period: 29 August–1 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1991
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.19%