Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O for Pauw & De Wit, 13–15 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 19.9% | 18.8–21.1% | 18.4–21.4% | 18.2–21.7% | 17.6–22.3% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 15.3% | 14.3–16.4% | 14.0–16.7% | 13.8–17.0% | 13.3–17.5% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 9.2% | 8.4–10.1% | 8.2–10.4% | 8.0–10.6% | 7.6–11.1% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.7–9.4% | 7.5–9.6% | 7.3–9.8% | 7.0–10.3% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.9% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.5–9.8% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.6–8.1% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.2–8.6% | 5.9–9.0% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.6–8.1% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.2–8.6% | 5.9–9.0% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.4% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.1–3.7% | 2.0–3.9% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.4% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.1–3.7% | 2.0–3.9% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.4% | 2.1–3.5% | 1.9–3.8% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.8% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.5–3.3% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.7% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–9 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 89% | 91% | Median |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 100% | |
| 6 | 87% | 92% | Median |
| 7 | 4% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 15% | 100% | |
| 4 | 85% | 85% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 93% | 99.7% | Median |
| 4 | 7% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 95% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 82% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 18% | 18% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.1% | 99.4% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 89% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–9 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) – BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) – ChristenUnie (EPP) – 50Plus (EPP) – Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 89% | 91% | Median |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) – BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) – ChristenUnie (EPP) – 50Plus (EPP) – Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 94% | 99.7% | Median |
| 7 | 5% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) – Democraten 66 (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 11% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 87% | 89% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 82% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 18% | 18% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 95% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 89% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): Pauw & De Wit
- Fieldwork period: 13–15 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1920
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.62%