Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O for Pauw & De Wit, 26–29 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 19.8% | 18.7–21.0% | 18.4–21.3% | 18.1–21.6% | 17.5–22.2% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 15.5% | 14.5–16.6% | 14.2–16.9% | 13.9–17.2% | 13.5–17.7% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 9.9% | 9.1–10.9% | 8.9–11.1% | 8.7–11.3% | 8.3–11.8% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 9.3% | 8.5–10.2% | 8.3–10.5% | 8.1–10.7% | 7.7–11.1% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.7–8.2% | 6.5–8.4% | 6.3–8.7% | 6.0–9.1% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.7–8.2% | 6.5–8.4% | 6.3–8.7% | 6.0–9.1% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.6–8.1% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.2–8.5% | 5.9–8.9% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.1–4.2% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.7–4.9% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.7–3.7% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.3% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.0–4.0% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.1–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.5% | 1.9–3.8% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.5% | 1.9–3.8% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.7–3.6% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.5–2.3% | 1.4–2.4% | 1.3–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–9 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 15% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 84% | 84% | Median |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 100% | |
| 6 | 92% | 94% | Median |
| 7 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 11% | 100% | |
| 4 | 88% | 89% | Median |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 54% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 46% | 46% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 17% | 100% | |
| 3 | 81% | 83% | Median |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 24% | 100% | |
| 3 | 76% | 76% | Median |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 22% | 100% | |
| 3 | 77% | 78% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 29% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 70% | 71% | Median |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 41% | 41% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 76% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 24% | 24% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
50Plus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–9 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) – BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) – ChristenUnie (EPP) – 50Plus (EPP) – Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 15% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 84% | 84% | Median |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 60% | 97% | Median |
| 8 | 36% | 37% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) – BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) – ChristenUnie (EPP) – 50Plus (EPP) – Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 35% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 63% | 65% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 89% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 9% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 22% | 100% | |
| 3 | 77% | 78% | Median |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 24% | 100% | |
| 3 | 76% | 76% | Median |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 41% | 41% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): Pauw & De Wit
- Fieldwork period: 26–29 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1935
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.81%