Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O for Pauw & De Wit, 23–24 October 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 16.7% | 15.8–17.6% | 15.5–17.9% | 15.3–18.1% | 14.9–18.6% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 14.4% | 13.5–15.3% | 13.3–15.5% | 13.1–15.8% | 12.7–16.2% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 12.6% | 11.8–13.5% | 11.6–13.7% | 11.4–13.9% | 11.1–14.3% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 10.4% | 9.7–11.2% | 9.5–11.4% | 9.3–11.6% | 9.0–12.0% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 7.7% | 7.1–8.4% | 6.9–8.6% | 6.7–8.7% | 6.5–9.1% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.9–8.2% | 6.7–8.4% | 6.6–8.6% | 6.3–8.9% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.9–8.2% | 6.7–8.4% | 6.6–8.6% | 6.3–8.9% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.2–4.1% | 3.1–4.3% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.8–4.6% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.1–3.7% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.3% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.2–2.9% | 2.1–3.1% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.1–2.8% | 2.0–3.0% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.7–3.3% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.9–2.6% | 1.8–2.7% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.9–2.6% | 1.8–2.7% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.7% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 28% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 72% | 72% | Median |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 56% | 100% | Median |
| 6 | 36% | 44% | |
| 7 | 7% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 40% | 100% | |
| 5 | 60% | 60% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 99.7% | 99.7% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 37% | 100% | |
| 3 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 99.7% | 99.7% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 11% | 100% | |
| 3 | 88% | 89% | Median |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 88% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 54% | 54% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 16% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
50Plus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 9–10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) – BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) – ChristenUnie (EPP) – 50Plus (EPP) – Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 56% | 99.9% | Median |
| 10 | 36% | 44% | |
| 11 | 7% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 28% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 72% | 72% | Median |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) – BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) – ChristenUnie (EPP) – 50Plus (EPP) – Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 36% | 100% | |
| 5 | 52% | 64% | Median |
| 6 | 12% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 99.7% | 99.7% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 37% | 100% | |
| 3 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 11% | 100% | |
| 3 | 88% | 89% | Median |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 51% | 56% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 88% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): Pauw & De Wit
- Fieldwork period: 23–24 October 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2745
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.48%