Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O for Pauw & De Wit, 25–28 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Democraten 66 (RE) 0.0% 15.4% 14.5–16.4% 14.3–16.6% 14.0–16.9% 13.6–17.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0.0% 14.8% 13.9–15.8% 13.7–16.0% 13.5–16.3% 13.0–16.7%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) 0.0% 12.7% 11.9–13.6% 11.6–13.8% 11.4–14.1% 11.1–14.5%
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0.0% 10.9% 10.1–11.7% 9.9–12.0% 9.7–12.2% 9.4–12.6%
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.5% 6.9–8.2% 6.7–8.4% 6.5–8.6% 6.2–9.0%
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0.0% 7.5% 6.9–8.2% 6.7–8.4% 6.5–8.6% 6.2–9.0%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0.0% 7.4% 6.8–8.1% 6.6–8.3% 6.4–8.5% 6.1–8.8%
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1%
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) 0.0% 3.2% 2.8–3.7% 2.7–3.8% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.2%
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.3% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.7%
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 2.2–3.0% 2.1–3.2% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0.0% 2.4% 2.0–2.8% 1.9–3.0% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3%
DENK (*) 0.0% 2.3% 2.0–2.8% 1.9–2.9% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2%
ChristenUnie (EPP) 0.0% 2.2% 1.9–2.6% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1%
50Plus (EPP) 0.0% 2.1% 1.8–2.5% 1.7–2.7% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.6% 1.3–2.0% 1.2–2.1% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4%
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Democraten 66 (RE) 0 6 6 6 6 6–7
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0 6 6 6 6 6
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) 0 5 5 5 5 4–5
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0 4 4 4 4 4–5
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3 3 3 2–3
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0 3 3 3 3 3
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0 2 2 2 2–3 2–3
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0 1 1 1 1 1
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
DENK (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
ChristenUnie (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
50Plus (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Democraten 66 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 98.8% 100% Median
7 1.1% 1.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.4% 100%  
6 99.5% 99.6% Median
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.4% 100%  
5 98.5% 98.6% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 98.6% 100% Median
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.1% 100%  
3 98% 98.9% Median
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 100%  
3 99.5% 99.5% Median
4 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 97% 100% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.7% 100% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 97% Median
2 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

DENK (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

ChristenUnie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

50Plus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0 10 0% 10 10 10 10–11
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0 6 0% 6 6 6 6
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) – BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) – ChristenUnie (EPP) – 50Plus (EPP) – Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP) 0 6 0% 6 6 5–6 4–6
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 3 0% 3 3 3 2–3
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) 0 3 0% 3 3 3 3
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0 2 0% 2 2 2–3 2–3
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 98% 99.9% Median
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.4% 100%  
6 99.5% 99.6% Median
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) – BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) – ChristenUnie (EPP) – 50Plus (EPP) – Nieuw Sociaal Contract (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.4% 100%  
5 1.3% 98.6%  
6 97% 97% Median
7 0% 0%  

GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.1% 100%  
3 98% 98.9% Median
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 100%  
3 99.5% 99.5% Median
4 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 97% 100% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.7% 100% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations