Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 30 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | RN | LR | PS | LREM–MoDem | EELV | PCF | FI | Agir–UDI | DlF | LP | UPR | NPA | G·s | R! | LO | GJ | REC | LE | W | PRG–Con | PRG | ÉAC | LO–NPA | PA | AR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 May 2019 | General Election | 24.9% 24 |
20.8% 20 |
14.0% 13 |
9.9% 7 |
9.0% 6 |
6.6% 1 |
6.6% 1 |
2.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 28–34% 24–34 |
5–9% 0–8 |
11–15% 10–14 |
14–19% 13–18 |
5–9% 5–9 |
1–3% 0 |
5–10% 5–9 |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
1–3% 0 |
0–2% 0 |
0–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
4–8% 0–7 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
0–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0 |
1–3% 0 |
| 6–10 May 2024 | Ifop–Fiducial LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
29–34% 26–32 |
6–9% 6–7 |
11–15% 10–13 |
15–19% 14–18 |
5–8% 0–7 |
2–3% 0 |
7–10% 6–9 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
5–8% 4–7 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
| 30 April–3 May 2024 | Harris Interactive Challenges, M6 and RTL |
29–33% 28–33 |
6–8% 6–7 |
13–16% 12–15 |
13–17% 13–16 |
5–7% 0–5 |
2–3% 0 |
7–10% 7–9 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
5–7% 0–6 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
1–3% 0 |
| 30 April–3 May 2024 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
30–35% 28–35 |
5–8% 0–7 |
10–14% 9–14 |
15–19% 14–19 |
7–10% 6–10 |
1–3% 0 |
7–10% 5–10 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
4–6% 0–5 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
| 29 April–2 May 2024 | OpinionWay–Tilder Les Echos and Radio Classique |
28–34% 27–32 |
6–9% 5–7 |
12–16% 10–14 |
15–19% 14–17 |
6–9% 5–7 |
1–3% 0 |
5–8% 4–6 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
6–9% 5–7 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
1–3% 0 |
| 29 April–1 May 2024 | Cluster17 Le Point |
27–32% 24–32 |
5–7% 0–7 |
11–15% 11–15 |
14–18% 14–17 |
5–7% 0–7 |
2–3% 0 |
7–10% 5–9 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
4–7% 0–6 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
| 25–26 April 2024 | Odoxa Public Sénat |
29–35% 29–34 |
6–10% 6–10 |
10–14% 9–15 |
13–18% 13–17 |
6–9% 5–8 |
2–4% 0 |
6–9% 5–8 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
4–7% 0–6 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
| 25–26 April 2024 | BVA RTL |
29–33% 29 |
5–7% 6 |
11–15% 11–12 |
15–19% 15 |
7–10% 7–9 |
1–2% 0 |
5–8% 6–7 |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
4–7% 5 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
2–4% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
| 19–24 April 2024 | Ipsos Le Parisien and Radio France |
31–33% 29–31 |
6–7% 5–7 |
13–15% 12–13 |
16–18% 15–17 |
6–7% 5–6 |
2–3% 0 |
7–8% 6–7 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1% 0 |
1% 0 |
1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
5–6% 0–5 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
1% 0 |
| 26 May 2019 | General Election | 24.9% 24 |
20.8% 20 |
14.0% 13 |
9.9% 7 |
9.0% 6 |
6.6% 1 |
6.6% 1 |
2.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
- RN: Rassemblement national (ID)
- LR: Les Républicains (EPP)
- PS: Parti socialiste (S&D)
- LREM–MoDem: La République en marche–Mouvement démocrate (RE)
- EELV: Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
- PCF: Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
- FI: La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
- Agir–UDI: Agir, la droite constructive–Union des démocrates et indépendants (RE)
- DlF: Debout la France (ECR)
- LP: Les Patriotes (NI)
- UPR: Union populaire républicaine (*)
- NPA: Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL)
- G·s: Génération·s, le mouvement (S&D)
- R!: Résistons! (*)
- LO: Lutte Ouvrière (*)
- GJ: Mouvement des gilets jaunes (*)
- REC: Reconquête (ECR)
- LE: L’Engagement (*)
- W: Walwari (*)
- PRG–Con: Parti radical de gauche–La Convention (S&D)
- PRG: Parti radical de gauche (S&D)
- ÉAC: Écologie au centre (Greens/EFA)
- LO–NPA: Lutte Ouvrière–Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL)
- PA: Parti animaliste (GUE/NGL)
- AR: Alliance Rurale (*)
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (ID) | 24.9% | 31.4% | 29.4–33.1% | 28.8–33.6% | 28.3–34.1% | 27.3–35.1% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 20.8% | 6.7% | 5.7–8.1% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.2–8.9% | 4.8–9.7% |
| Parti socialiste (S&D) | 14.0% | 13.3% | 11.6–14.5% | 11.2–14.9% | 10.8–15.3% | 10.2–16.1% |
| La République en marche–Mouvement démocrate (RE) | 9.9% | 16.5% | 14.7–17.9% | 14.2–18.3% | 13.9–18.7% | 13.3–19.5% |
| Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 9.0% | 6.7% | 5.5–8.3% | 5.2–8.7% | 5.0–9.1% | 4.6–9.6% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 6.6% | 2.4% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.3–3.3% | 1.1–3.7% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.0–9.1% | 5.7–9.4% | 5.4–9.7% | 4.9–10.2% |
| Agir, la droite constructive–Union des démocrates et indépendants (RE) | 2.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Les Patriotes (NI) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% | 0.7–2.7% | 0.5–3.1% |
| Union populaire républicaine (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.7% | 0.3–1.9% |
| Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
| Génération·s, le mouvement (S&D) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Résistons! (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.7% | 0.2–1.9% | 0.1–2.3% |
| Mouvement des gilets jaunes (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Reconquête (ECR) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 4.8–7.0% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.4–7.8% | 4.0–8.5% |
| L’Engagement (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Walwari (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Parti radical de gauche–La Convention (S&D) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Parti radical de gauche (S&D) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.0% | 0.0–1.2% |
| Écologie au centre (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.2% | 0.3–2.5% |
| Lutte Ouvrière–Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Parti animaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.8–2.8% | 0.7–3.2% | 0.7–3.4% | 0.5–3.9% |
| Alliance Rurale (*) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.4% | 0.7–2.6% | 0.6–3.0% |
Rassemblement national (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (ID) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.5–25.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 8% | 96% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 16% | 88% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 31.5–32.5% | 29% | 47% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 12% | 18% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 34% | 93% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 38% | 59% | Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 17% | 22% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti socialiste (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste (S&D) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 8% | 98.7% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 21% | 91% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 29% | 70% | Median |
| 13.5–14.5% | 31% | 41% | Last Result |
| 14.5–15.5% | 8% | 10% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 0% |
La République en marche–Mouvement démocrate (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La République en marche–Mouvement démocrate (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 18% | 92% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 26% | 73% | Median |
| 16.5–17.5% | 32% | 47% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 12% | 15% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 0% |
Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 32% | 89% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 30% | 57% | Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 20% | 27% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 6% | 7% | Last Result |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 16% | 96% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 32% | 80% | Last Result, Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 27% | 49% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 19% | 22% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 8% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 59% | 92% | Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 32% | 33% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Reconquête (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ECR) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 5% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 39% | 95% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 38% | 57% | Median |
| 6.5–7.5% | 14% | 18% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% |
Union populaire républicaine (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Union populaire républicaine (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 89% | 93% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 0% |
Écologie au centre (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Écologie au centre (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 72% | 94% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 21% | 21% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 0% |
Alliance Rurale (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alliance Rurale (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 56% | 99.7% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 40% | 43% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 0% |
Parti animaliste (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti animaliste (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 62% | 99.4% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 25% | 37% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 11% | 13% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% |
Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 28% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 70% | 72% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 0% |
Les Patriotes (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Patriotes (NI) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 68% | 99.4% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 27% | 31% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 59% | 67% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 8% | 8% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 0% |
Parti radical de gauche (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti radical de gauche (S&D) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 69% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 0.5–1.5% | 31% | 31% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 1.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 94% | 98.5% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Rassemblement national (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 26 | 11% | 96% | |
| 27 | 3% | 86% | |
| 28 | 26% | 83% | |
| 29 | 21% | 57% | Median |
| 30 | 18% | 37% | |
| 31 | 7% | 19% | |
| 32 | 4% | 12% | |
| 33 | 3% | 8% | |
| 34 | 5% | 5% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 5 | 17% | 95% | |
| 6 | 45% | 78% | Median |
| 7 | 23% | 32% | |
| 8 | 8% | 9% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Parti socialiste (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 11 | 7% | 94% | |
| 12 | 43% | 88% | Median |
| 13 | 27% | 45% | Last Result |
| 14 | 16% | 18% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
La République en marche–Mouvement démocrate (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La République en marche–Mouvement démocrate (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 15% | 97% | |
| 15 | 37% | 81% | Median |
| 16 | 26% | 44% | |
| 17 | 7% | 18% | |
| 18 | 11% | 12% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 5 | 33% | 98% | |
| 6 | 33% | 65% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 20% | 32% | |
| 8 | 9% | 12% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 9% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 24% | 90% | |
| 7 | 31% | 66% | Median |
| 8 | 30% | 35% | |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Agir, la droite constructive–Union des démocrates et indépendants (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Agir, la droite constructive–Union des démocrates et indépendants (RE) page.
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Les Patriotes (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Patriotes (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Union populaire républicaine (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Union populaire républicaine (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Génération·s, le mouvement (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Génération·s, le mouvement (S&D) page.
Résistons! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Résistons! (*) page.
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Mouvement des gilets jaunes (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement des gilets jaunes (*) page.
Reconquête (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 85% | |
| 2 | 0% | 85% | |
| 3 | 0% | 85% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 85% | |
| 5 | 55% | 84% | Median |
| 6 | 25% | 29% | |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
L’Engagement (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the L’Engagement (*) page.
Walwari (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Walwari (*) page.
Parti radical de gauche–La Convention (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti radical de gauche–La Convention (S&D) page.
Parti radical de gauche (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti radical de gauche (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Écologie au centre (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Écologie au centre (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière–Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière–Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) page.
Parti animaliste (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti animaliste (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Alliance Rurale (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alliance Rurale (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (ID) | 24 | 29 | 0% | 26–32 | 26–34 | 24–34 | 24–35 |
| La République en marche–Mouvement démocrate (RE) – Agir, la droite constructive–Union des démocrates et indépendants (RE) | 7 | 15 | 0% | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| Parti socialiste (S&D) – Génération·s, le mouvement (S&D) – Parti radical de gauche (S&D) – Parti radical de gauche–La Convention (S&D) | 13 | 12 | 0% | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 |
| Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) – Écologie au centre (Greens/EFA) | 6 | 6 | 0% | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 0–9 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) – Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) – Lutte Ouvrière–Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) – Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) – Parti animaliste (GUE/NGL) | 2 | 7 | 0% | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 20 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 0–8 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
| Debout la France (ECR) – Reconquête (ECR) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Alliance Rurale () – Lutte Ouvrière () – L’Engagement () – Mouvement des gilets jaunes () – Résistons! () – Union populaire républicaine () – Walwari (*) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Patriotes (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 26 | 11% | 96% | |
| 27 | 3% | 86% | |
| 28 | 26% | 83% | |
| 29 | 21% | 57% | Median |
| 30 | 18% | 37% | |
| 31 | 7% | 19% | |
| 32 | 4% | 12% | |
| 33 | 3% | 8% | |
| 34 | 5% | 5% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
La République en marche–Mouvement démocrate (RE) – Agir, la droite constructive–Union des démocrates et indépendants (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 15% | 97% | |
| 15 | 37% | 81% | Median |
| 16 | 26% | 44% | |
| 17 | 7% | 18% | |
| 18 | 11% | 12% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste (S&D) – Génération·s, le mouvement (S&D) – Parti radical de gauche (S&D) – Parti radical de gauche–La Convention (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 11 | 7% | 94% | |
| 12 | 43% | 88% | Median |
| 13 | 27% | 45% | Last Result |
| 14 | 16% | 18% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) – Écologie au centre (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 5 | 33% | 98% | |
| 6 | 33% | 65% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 20% | 32% | |
| 8 | 9% | 12% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) – Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) – Lutte Ouvrière–Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) – Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) – Parti animaliste (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 9% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 24% | 90% | |
| 7 | 31% | 66% | Median |
| 8 | 30% | 35% | |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 5 | 17% | 95% | |
| 6 | 45% | 78% | Median |
| 7 | 23% | 32% | |
| 8 | 8% | 9% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Debout la France (ECR) – Reconquête (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 85% | |
| 2 | 0% | 85% | |
| 3 | 0% | 85% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 85% | |
| 5 | 55% | 84% | Median |
| 6 | 25% | 29% | |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Alliance Rurale () – Lutte Ouvrière () – L’Engagement () – Mouvement des gilets jaunes () – Résistons! () – Union populaire républicaine () – Walwari (*)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Les Patriotes (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 8
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 2,097,152
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 16,777,216
- Error estimate: 4.36%