Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, 23–25 April 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
23.5% |
21.9–25.1% |
21.5–25.5% |
21.2–25.9% |
20.5–26.7% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
17.0% |
15.7–18.5% |
15.3–18.9% |
15.0–19.2% |
14.4–19.9% |
Alternative für Deutschland (NI) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
13.7–16.4% |
13.4–16.8% |
13.1–17.1% |
12.5–17.8% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
13.7–16.4% |
13.4–16.8% |
13.1–17.1% |
12.5–17.8% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.5% |
5.7–7.5% |
5.5–7.8% |
5.3–8.0% |
4.9–8.6% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
4.2% |
3.5–5.0% |
3.3–5.2% |
3.2–5.4% |
2.9–5.9% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.0% |
3.0–5.2% |
2.7–5.7% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.5–3.7% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.0–4.5% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.5–3.7% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.0–4.5% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.7% |
1.5–2.8% |
1.4–3.0% |
1.2–3.3% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.4% |
1.0–1.9% |
0.9–2.1% |
0.9–2.2% |
0.7–2.5% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.9% |
0.6–1.4% |
0.6–1.5% |
0.5–1.6% |
0.4–1.9% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.3% |
0.5–1.4% |
0.4–1.5% |
0.4–1.7% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–1.0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
3% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
21 |
61% |
97% |
Median |
22 |
33% |
35% |
|
23 |
2% |
3% |
|
24 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
14 |
29% |
99.5% |
|
15 |
1.4% |
71% |
|
16 |
45% |
69% |
Median |
17 |
22% |
24% |
|
18 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
13 |
72% |
99.5% |
Median |
14 |
4% |
28% |
|
15 |
0.4% |
24% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
23% |
|
17 |
22% |
23% |
|
18 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
24% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.8% |
76% |
|
15 |
68% |
76% |
Median |
16 |
4% |
7% |
|
17 |
4% |
4% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
6 |
30% |
98.9% |
|
7 |
30% |
69% |
Median |
8 |
39% |
39% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
4 |
42% |
98.8% |
|
5 |
57% |
57% |
Median |
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-bündnissahrawagenknechtni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
3% |
100% |
|
4 |
97% |
97% |
Median |
5 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
24% |
100% |
|
3 |
76% |
76% |
Median |
4 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
51% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
47% |
49% |
|
4 |
2% |
2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
99.3% |
99.8% |
Median |
3 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
70% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
30% |
30% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.5% |
99.6% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
96% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
5% |
100% |
|
1 |
95% |
95% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-basisdemokratischeparteideutschland.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
93% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
7% |
7% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
32% |
100% |
|
1 |
68% |
68% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
3 |
30 |
0% |
28–30 |
28–30 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
Alternative für Deutschland (NI) – Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) |
3 |
19 |
0% |
19–23 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–23 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
15 |
0% |
13–15 |
13–16 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
Freie Wähler (RE) – Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
2 |
7 |
0% |
7 |
7–8 |
7–8 |
6–8 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu–familie.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
3% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
27 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
28 |
24% |
96% |
|
29 |
3% |
73% |
Median |
30 |
68% |
69% |
|
31 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (NI) – Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd–bsw–partei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
71% |
98.5% |
Median |
20 |
3% |
27% |
|
21 |
0.7% |
24% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
23% |
|
23 |
23% |
23% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
24% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.8% |
76% |
|
15 |
68% |
76% |
Median |
16 |
4% |
7% |
|
17 |
4% |
4% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE) – Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-04-25-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-fw–fdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
91% |
98.7% |
Median |
8 |
8% |
8% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): ZDF
- Fieldwork period: 23–25 April 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1228
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.21%