Opinion Poll by YouGov, 3–8 May 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
22.7% |
21.2–24.3% |
20.8–24.7% |
20.5–25.1% |
19.8–25.9% |
Alternative für Deutschland (NI) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
18.6–21.5% |
18.2–21.9% |
17.8–22.3% |
17.2–23.0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
16.0% |
14.8–17.4% |
14.4–17.8% |
14.1–18.2% |
13.5–18.9% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
13.8–16.4% |
13.4–16.8% |
13.1–17.1% |
12.5–17.8% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.3% |
5.5–7.3% |
5.3–7.6% |
5.1–7.8% |
4.7–8.3% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.2–7.0% |
5.0–7.2% |
4.8–7.5% |
4.5–8.0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.0% |
3.0–5.3% |
2.8–5.7% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.0% |
3.0–5.3% |
2.8–5.7% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.8% |
1.4–2.4% |
1.3–2.6% |
1.2–2.8% |
1.1–3.1% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
0.9% |
0.6–1.3% |
0.5–1.5% |
0.5–1.6% |
0.4–1.8% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
0.2–1.5% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–1.0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.0–0.9% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.0–0.6% |
0.0–0.7% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.0–0.6% |
0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
7% |
96% |
|
21 |
2% |
89% |
|
22 |
51% |
87% |
Median |
23 |
33% |
37% |
|
24 |
4% |
4% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.9% |
99.3% |
|
17 |
9% |
98% |
|
18 |
34% |
90% |
|
19 |
8% |
56% |
Median |
20 |
43% |
48% |
|
21 |
4% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
13 |
7% |
99.4% |
|
14 |
34% |
93% |
|
15 |
40% |
59% |
Median |
16 |
17% |
19% |
|
17 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
19 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
2% |
98.5% |
|
14 |
78% |
96% |
Median |
15 |
11% |
18% |
|
16 |
4% |
6% |
|
17 |
2% |
3% |
|
18 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
5 |
7% |
99.6% |
|
6 |
40% |
93% |
|
7 |
46% |
52% |
Median |
8 |
6% |
6% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-bündnissahrawagenknechtni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
13% |
98.9% |
|
6 |
12% |
86% |
|
7 |
71% |
74% |
Median |
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
70% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
17% |
30% |
|
5 |
12% |
13% |
|
6 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
48% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
23% |
52% |
Median |
5 |
29% |
29% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
20% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
75% |
80% |
Median |
3 |
4% |
4% |
|
4 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
96% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
36% |
100% |
|
1 |
64% |
64% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
58% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
42% |
42% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
92% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
88% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
12% |
12% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-basisdemokratischeparteideutschland.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
96% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
3 |
29 |
0% |
27–30 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
Alternative für Deutschland (NI) – Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) |
3 |
27 |
0% |
24–28 |
23–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
12–18 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
5 |
0% |
5–7 |
4–7 |
4–7 |
4–8 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu–familie.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
25 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
26 |
2% |
97% |
|
27 |
6% |
94% |
|
28 |
6% |
89% |
|
29 |
69% |
82% |
Median |
30 |
11% |
13% |
|
31 |
2% |
2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (NI) – Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd–bsw–partei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
23 |
9% |
99.2% |
|
24 |
4% |
90% |
|
25 |
7% |
86% |
|
26 |
29% |
79% |
|
27 |
1.4% |
50% |
Median |
28 |
48% |
49% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
13 |
7% |
99.4% |
|
14 |
34% |
93% |
|
15 |
40% |
59% |
Median |
16 |
17% |
19% |
|
17 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
19 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-08-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
7% |
100% |
|
5 |
55% |
93% |
|
6 |
6% |
39% |
Median |
7 |
32% |
33% |
|
8 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–8 May 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1247
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.77%