Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 29 May–5 June 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
23.4% |
22.3–24.7% |
21.9–25.1% |
21.6–25.4% |
21.1–26.0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
14.0–16.1% |
13.7–16.4% |
13.5–16.6% |
13.0–17.2% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
14.0–16.1% |
13.7–16.4% |
13.5–16.6% |
13.0–17.2% |
Alternative für Deutschland (NI) |
0.0% |
14.0% |
13.0–15.0% |
12.8–15.3% |
12.5–15.6% |
12.1–16.1% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) |
0.0% |
7.0% |
6.3–7.8% |
6.1–8.0% |
6.0–8.2% |
5.6–8.6% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.6% |
5.9–7.3% |
5.7–7.5% |
5.5–7.7% |
5.2–8.1% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.7% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.9–6.4% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.6–3.6% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.1–4.1% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.6–3.6% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.1–4.1% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.8% |
1.5–2.3% |
1.4–2.4% |
1.3–2.5% |
1.2–2.8% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.3% |
1.0–1.7% |
0.9–1.8% |
0.9–1.9% |
0.8–2.1% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.5–1.3% |
0.4–1.5% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.5–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.4% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.4–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
5% |
100% |
|
21 |
15% |
95% |
|
22 |
55% |
80% |
Median |
23 |
21% |
25% |
|
24 |
4% |
5% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
3% |
100% |
|
13 |
18% |
97% |
|
14 |
59% |
79% |
Median |
15 |
14% |
20% |
|
16 |
5% |
5% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
13 |
7% |
99.1% |
|
14 |
21% |
92% |
|
15 |
63% |
71% |
Median |
16 |
8% |
8% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
30% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
38% |
70% |
Median |
14 |
9% |
33% |
|
15 |
21% |
24% |
|
16 |
3% |
3% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-bündnissahrawagenknechtni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
6 |
38% |
99.6% |
|
7 |
55% |
62% |
Median |
8 |
6% |
6% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
41% |
98% |
|
7 |
51% |
58% |
Median |
8 |
7% |
7% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
12% |
100% |
|
5 |
42% |
88% |
Median |
6 |
46% |
46% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
9% |
100% |
|
3 |
76% |
91% |
Median |
4 |
14% |
14% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
4% |
100% |
|
3 |
86% |
96% |
Median |
4 |
9% |
9% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
36% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
51% |
64% |
Median |
3 |
13% |
13% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
89% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
11% |
11% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
17% |
100% |
|
1 |
83% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
17% |
100% |
|
1 |
83% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
58% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
42% |
42% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-basisdemokratischeparteideutschland.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
69% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
31% |
31% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
89% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
11% |
11% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
3 |
29 |
0% |
28–30 |
27–31 |
27–32 |
26–32 |
Alternative für Deutschland (NI) – Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) |
3 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
15 |
0% |
14–15 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
12–16 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
8 |
0% |
8–9 |
7–9 |
7–9 |
7–9 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu–familie.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
27 |
6% |
99.4% |
|
28 |
7% |
94% |
|
29 |
64% |
86% |
Median |
30 |
15% |
22% |
|
31 |
5% |
7% |
|
32 |
3% |
3% |
|
33 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (NI) – Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd–bsw–partei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
14% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
32% |
86% |
|
22 |
25% |
53% |
Median |
23 |
22% |
28% |
|
24 |
6% |
6% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
13 |
7% |
99.1% |
|
14 |
21% |
92% |
|
15 |
63% |
71% |
Median |
16 |
8% |
8% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-05-Ipsos-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
10% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
41% |
90% |
Median |
9 |
50% |
50% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 29 May–5 June 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.65%