Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 28 February–1 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
22.7% |
21.1–24.5% |
20.6–25.0% |
20.2–25.4% |
19.4–26.3% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) |
0.0% |
21.8% |
20.2–23.5% |
19.7–24.0% |
19.3–24.5% |
18.6–25.3% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
14.9% |
13.5–16.4% |
13.2–16.9% |
12.8–17.3% |
12.2–18.0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
11.9% |
10.7–13.3% |
10.3–13.7% |
10.0–14.1% |
9.5–14.8% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
8.9% |
7.8–10.2% |
7.5–10.5% |
7.3–10.8% |
6.8–11.5% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.1% |
4.9–7.4% |
4.7–7.7% |
4.3–8.2% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.0% |
4.0–6.3% |
3.8–6.5% |
3.5–7.1% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.9–5.4% |
2.7–5.9% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.6% |
1.2–2.2% |
1.1–2.4% |
1.0–2.6% |
0.8–2.9% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.5–1.3% |
0.5–1.4% |
0.4–1.6% |
0.3–1.9% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
7% |
93% |
|
21 |
15% |
85% |
|
22 |
54% |
70% |
Median |
23 |
7% |
17% |
|
24 |
7% |
10% |
|
25 |
3% |
3% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
16% |
98.6% |
|
20 |
12% |
83% |
|
21 |
51% |
71% |
Median |
22 |
13% |
20% |
|
23 |
5% |
7% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
51% |
98.7% |
Median |
14 |
30% |
48% |
|
15 |
15% |
18% |
|
16 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
17 |
2% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
2% |
100% |
|
10 |
47% |
98% |
|
11 |
23% |
51% |
Median |
12 |
12% |
28% |
|
13 |
15% |
16% |
|
14 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
7 |
12% |
99.7% |
|
8 |
60% |
88% |
Median |
9 |
24% |
28% |
|
10 |
3% |
4% |
|
11 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
4% |
100% |
|
5 |
12% |
96% |
|
6 |
65% |
84% |
Median |
7 |
17% |
19% |
|
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
4 |
21% |
99.5% |
|
5 |
59% |
78% |
Median |
6 |
17% |
20% |
|
7 |
3% |
3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
19% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
48% |
81% |
Median |
5 |
32% |
33% |
|
6 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
34% |
100% |
|
2 |
58% |
66% |
Median |
3 |
8% |
8% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
94% |
98.7% |
Median |
2 |
4% |
4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
95% |
97% |
Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
38% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
62% |
62% |
Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
85% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
15% |
15% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) |
0 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0 |
13 |
0% |
13–15 |
13–15 |
13–16 |
12–17 |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) |
0 |
6 |
0% |
4–7 |
4–7 |
4–8 |
4–8 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
0 |
6 |
0% |
4–7 |
4–7 |
4–7 |
4–7 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
16% |
98.6% |
|
20 |
12% |
83% |
|
21 |
51% |
71% |
Median |
22 |
13% |
20% |
|
23 |
5% |
7% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
51% |
98.7% |
Median |
14 |
30% |
48% |
|
15 |
15% |
18% |
|
16 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
17 |
2% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
4 |
14% |
99.8% |
|
5 |
22% |
86% |
|
6 |
53% |
64% |
Median |
7 |
8% |
10% |
|
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
14% |
100% |
|
5 |
22% |
86% |
|
6 |
28% |
64% |
Median |
7 |
37% |
37% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 28 February–1 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.12%