Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 4–5 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.9% | 21.4–24.4% | 21.0–24.8% | 20.7–25.2% | 20.0–26.0% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 19.6–22.5% | 19.2–22.9% | 18.9–23.3% | 18.2–24.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.8–17.4% | 14.4–17.7% | 14.1–18.1% | 13.5–18.7% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.3–13.9% | 9.9–14.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.1% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.6–10.7% | 7.1–11.2% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.9–7.5% | 4.6–8.0% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.6–6.7% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.4–2.3% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.2–2.6% | 1.0–2.9% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.6% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 19–24 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–18 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 34% | 98.9% | |
| 21 | 14% | 65% | |
| 22 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 23 | 21% | 35% | |
| 24 | 14% | 14% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 20% | 97% | |
| 19 | 21% | 77% | |
| 20 | 26% | 56% | Median |
| 21 | 26% | 29% | |
| 22 | 3% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 11% | 98% | |
| 15 | 21% | 87% | |
| 16 | 36% | 66% | Median |
| 17 | 23% | 30% | |
| 18 | 7% | 7% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 10 | 18% | 99.4% | |
| 11 | 16% | 81% | |
| 12 | 40% | 66% | Median |
| 13 | 24% | 26% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 17% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 36% | 83% | Median |
| 9 | 32% | 47% | |
| 10 | 14% | 15% | |
| 11 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 5 | 24% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 63% | 76% | Median |
| 7 | 11% | 13% | |
| 8 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 24% | 98% | |
| 5 | 69% | 74% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 24% | 100% | |
| 3 | 63% | 76% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 50% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 48% | 50% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 99.6% | Median |
| 2 | 11% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 94% | Median |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 61% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 39% | 39% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 74% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 26% | 26% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 14–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–18 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 20% | 97% | |
| 19 | 21% | 77% | |
| 20 | 26% | 56% | Median |
| 21 | 26% | 29% | |
| 22 | 3% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 11% | 98% | |
| 15 | 21% | 87% | |
| 16 | 36% | 66% | Median |
| 17 | 23% | 30% | |
| 18 | 7% | 7% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 73% | 93% | Median |
| 6 | 15% | 19% | |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 20% | 100% | |
| 4 | 33% | 80% | Median |
| 5 | 35% | 47% | |
| 6 | 11% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Infratest dimap
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–5 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1325
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.51%