Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 11 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.9% | 21.3–24.6% | 20.8–25.1% | 20.4–25.6% | 19.7–26.4% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 19.5–22.8% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.7–23.7% | 17.9–24.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.2–19.1% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.2–14.3% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.6% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.8% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.2% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–1.9% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.5% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 19–27 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 20 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 33% | 93% | |
| 21 | 21% | 59% | Median |
| 22 | 17% | 38% | |
| 23 | 19% | 21% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 10% | 88% | |
| 19 | 28% | 78% | |
| 20 | 29% | 51% | Median |
| 21 | 17% | 22% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 9% | 95% | |
| 15 | 34% | 85% | |
| 16 | 24% | 52% | Median |
| 17 | 25% | 28% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 20% | 96% | |
| 11 | 36% | 76% | Median |
| 12 | 29% | 40% | |
| 13 | 4% | 11% | |
| 14 | 7% | 7% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 14% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 34% | 86% | |
| 10 | 32% | 52% | Median |
| 11 | 18% | 20% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 24% | 98% | |
| 6 | 43% | 75% | Median |
| 7 | 31% | 32% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 41% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 50% | 59% | Median |
| 5 | 8% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 45% | 88% | Median |
| 4 | 44% | 44% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 16% | 100% | |
| 2 | 76% | 84% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 86% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 12% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 72% | 73% | Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 9% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 10% | 88% | |
| 19 | 28% | 78% | |
| 20 | 29% | 51% | Median |
| 21 | 17% | 22% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 9% | 95% | |
| 15 | 34% | 85% | |
| 16 | 24% | 52% | Median |
| 17 | 25% | 28% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 9% | 98% | |
| 5 | 53% | 89% | Median |
| 6 | 35% | 36% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 50% | 92% | |
| 5 | 34% | 41% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1031
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.70%