Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, 18–20 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.5–23.6% | 20.0–24.1% | 19.7–24.4% | 19.0–25.2% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.4% | 19.9–23.0% | 19.4–23.4% | 19.1–23.8% | 18.4–24.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.7–17.5% | 14.3–17.9% | 14.0–18.2% | 13.4–19.0% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.5–13.7% | 10.2–14.0% | 9.7–14.6% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.4–11.9% | 7.9–12.5% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.7% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.5–7.2% | 4.1–7.7% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.5–2.9% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.2–3.4% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.6–2.4% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.5% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 20 | 20–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 17–25 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 20–21 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–18 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 8% | 98% | |
| 20 | 72% | 91% | Median |
| 21 | 9% | 19% | |
| 22 | 6% | 10% | |
| 23 | 3% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 6% | 98% | |
| 20 | 29% | 92% | |
| 21 | 55% | 64% | Median |
| 22 | 8% | 9% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 5% | 98% | |
| 15 | 22% | 93% | |
| 16 | 67% | 71% | Median |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 10 | 30% | 99.5% | |
| 11 | 13% | 69% | |
| 12 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 13 | 45% | 46% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 49% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 28% | 51% | Median |
| 10 | 11% | 23% | |
| 11 | 11% | 12% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 66% | 97% | Median |
| 6 | 28% | 31% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 14% | 98% | |
| 4 | 82% | 84% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 59% | 93% | Median |
| 4 | 34% | 34% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 42% | 96% | |
| 3 | 53% | 53% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 72% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 28% | 28% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 91% | 99.4% | Median |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 48% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 10% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 20–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 17–25 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 15–16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–18 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 8% | 98% | |
| 20 | 72% | 91% | Median |
| 21 | 9% | 19% | |
| 22 | 6% | 10% | |
| 23 | 3% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 5% | 98% | |
| 15 | 22% | 93% | |
| 16 | 67% | 71% | Median |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 11% | 98% | |
| 6 | 38% | 87% | |
| 7 | 49% | 49% | Median |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 47% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 21% | 50% | |
| 5 | 28% | 29% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): ZDF
- Fieldwork period: 18–20 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1161
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.08%