Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 21–24 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 23.5% 22.3–24.8% 22.0–25.1% 21.7–25.4% 21.1–26.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 21.3% 20.2–22.5% 19.8–22.9% 19.6–23.2% 19.0–23.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.5% 13.5–15.6% 13.3–15.9% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.2% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.5% 9.6–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.2–11.9% 8.8–12.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.7% 5.1–6.4% 4.9–6.6% 4.8–6.8% 4.5–7.2%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.5% 3.9–5.2% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.4–5.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.0% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.1%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–25
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 20 19–22 19–22 19–22 18–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 13–14 13–14 13–15 12–16
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 12 11–13 11–13 10–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.8% 100%  
21 42% 99.2%  
22 19% 57% Median
23 31% 38%  
24 7% 7%  
25 0.7% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.7% 100%  
19 26% 99.3%  
20 25% 74% Median
21 5% 48%  
22 43% 44%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.9% 100%  
13 46% 99.1%  
14 49% 53% Median
15 3% 4%  
16 0.8% 0.8%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 3% 99.9%  
11 37% 97%  
12 50% 60% Median
13 10% 10%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 20% 99.7%  
10 30% 80% Median
11 47% 49%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.9% 100%  
5 50% 99.1% Median
6 48% 49%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 72% 99.3% Median
5 27% 27%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 73% 99.6% Median
4 26% 26%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 49% 100%  
2 51% 51% Median
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.1% 99.8% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 80% 80% Median
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 47%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 0% 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–25
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 13–14 13–14 13–15 12–16
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.8% 100%  
21 42% 99.2%  
22 19% 57% Median
23 31% 38%  
24 7% 7%  
25 0.7% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.9% 100%  
13 46% 99.1%  
14 49% 53% Median
15 3% 4%  
16 0.8% 0.8%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 36% 99.6% Median
5 54% 64%  
6 10% 10%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 37% 99.9%  
5 48% 63% Median
6 15% 15%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations