Opinion Poll by Verian for FOCUS, 19–25 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.6–23.5% | 20.2–23.9% | 19.9–24.3% | 19.3–25.0% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.3% | 19.9–22.8% | 19.5–23.2% | 19.2–23.5% | 18.6–24.2% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.8–16.3% | 13.5–16.7% | 13.2–17.0% | 12.7–17.6% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.9–14.3% | 11.6–14.6% | 11.4–14.9% | 10.9–15.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.5–11.7% | 8.1–12.3% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.6% | 4.9–6.5% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.2–7.4% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.8–5.5% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.4% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.2–3.2% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.3% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.8% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 20 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–24 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 19 | 16% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 41% | 84% | Median |
| 21 | 9% | 43% | |
| 22 | 20% | 33% | |
| 23 | 10% | 14% | |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 17% | 97% | |
| 20 | 21% | 80% | |
| 21 | 21% | 59% | Median |
| 22 | 15% | 38% | |
| 23 | 22% | 23% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 26% | 98.7% | |
| 14 | 36% | 73% | Median |
| 15 | 29% | 37% | |
| 16 | 7% | 8% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 15% | 97% | |
| 12 | 54% | 81% | Median |
| 13 | 22% | 28% | |
| 14 | 4% | 5% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 8 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 9 | 44% | 96% | |
| 10 | 39% | 53% | Median |
| 11 | 13% | 13% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 30% | 97% | |
| 6 | 62% | 67% | Median |
| 7 | 4% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 17% | 100% | |
| 4 | 78% | 83% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 81% | 92% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 28% | 100% | |
| 2 | 63% | 72% | Median |
| 3 | 9% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 83% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 17% | 17% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 89% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 76% | 76% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 19–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 19 | 16% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 41% | 84% | Median |
| 21 | 9% | 43% | |
| 22 | 20% | 33% | |
| 23 | 10% | 14% | |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 26% | 98.7% | |
| 14 | 36% | 73% | Median |
| 15 | 29% | 37% | |
| 16 | 7% | 8% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 38% | 98.6% | |
| 5 | 56% | 61% | Median |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 34% | 99.1% | |
| 5 | 47% | 66% | Median |
| 6 | 18% | 18% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Verian
- Commissioner(s): FOCUS
- Fieldwork period: 19–25 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1381
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.73%