Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 28–31 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 23.5% 22.3–24.7% 22.0–25.1% 21.7–25.4% 21.1–26.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 21.0% 19.8–22.2% 19.5–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.7–23.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.2% 13.5–17.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.7–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.3–11.9% 8.9–12.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.5% 3.9–5.1% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.4–5.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–25
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 20 19–21 19–21 18–22 18–23
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 14–16 14–16 13–16 13–17
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.3% 100%  
20 1.3% 99.7%  
21 36% 98%  
22 29% 63% Median
23 25% 34%  
24 9% 9%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.4% 100%  
18 5% 99.6%  
19 24% 95%  
20 40% 71% Median
21 26% 31%  
22 4% 4%  
23 0.8% 0.8%  
24 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.4% 100%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 13% 97%  
15 51% 85% Median
16 33% 33%  
17 0.6% 0.8%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 18% 99.8%  
11 40% 82% Median
12 29% 42%  
13 13% 13%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.0% 100%  
9 21% 99.0%  
10 45% 78% Median
11 32% 33%  
12 1.0% 1.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 58% 95% Median
6 36% 36%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 69% 98% Median
5 30% 30%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 43% 98%  
4 53% 56% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 78% 100% Median
2 22% 22%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100% Last Result
1 93% 98.7% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100% Last Result
1 66% 66% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 51% 51% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 0% 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–25
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 0% 14–16 14–16 13–16 13–17
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.3% 100%  
20 1.3% 99.7%  
21 36% 98%  
22 29% 63% Median
23 25% 34%  
24 9% 9%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.4% 100%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 13% 97%  
15 51% 85% Median
16 33% 33%  
17 0.6% 0.8%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 100%  
4 28% 99.5%  
5 63% 71% Median
6 9% 9%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.4% 100%  
4 30% 98.6%  
5 58% 69% Median
6 11% 11%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations