Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 9 April 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 23.5% | 21.9–25.2% | 21.4–25.7% | 21.0–26.1% | 20.2–27.0% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.3% | 19.7–23.0% | 19.3–23.5% | 18.9–23.9% | 18.2–24.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.3–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.3–19.1% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.5–13.8% | 10.2–14.1% | 9.6–14.8% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.6% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.5–7.3% | 4.1–7.8% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.8% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.8–2.8% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.4% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 22 | 21–24 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 19–25 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 20 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 12–18 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 3% | 97% | |
| 21 | 37% | 94% | |
| 22 | 23% | 57% | Median |
| 23 | 15% | 34% | |
| 24 | 14% | 20% | |
| 25 | 6% | 6% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 10% | 97% | |
| 19 | 22% | 88% | |
| 20 | 29% | 66% | Median |
| 21 | 25% | 36% | |
| 22 | 9% | 12% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 11% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 89% | |
| 14 | 9% | 85% | |
| 15 | 27% | 76% | Median |
| 16 | 21% | 49% | |
| 17 | 27% | 28% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 9% | 98% | |
| 11 | 50% | 89% | Median |
| 12 | 28% | 39% | |
| 13 | 10% | 11% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 24% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 23% | 75% | |
| 10 | 29% | 52% | Median |
| 11 | 16% | 24% | |
| 12 | 7% | 7% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 35% | 96% | |
| 6 | 52% | 61% | Median |
| 7 | 9% | 9% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 12% | 98% | |
| 4 | 64% | 86% | Median |
| 5 | 21% | 22% | |
| 6 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 17% | 100% | |
| 3 | 63% | 83% | Median |
| 4 | 19% | 19% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 52% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 48% | 48% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 99.2% | Median |
| 2 | 6% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 73% | 76% | Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 35% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 65% | 65% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–24 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 19–25 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 12–17 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 12–18 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 3% | 97% | |
| 21 | 37% | 94% | |
| 22 | 23% | 57% | Median |
| 23 | 15% | 34% | |
| 24 | 14% | 20% | |
| 25 | 6% | 6% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 11% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 89% | |
| 14 | 9% | 85% | |
| 15 | 27% | 76% | Median |
| 16 | 21% | 49% | |
| 17 | 27% | 28% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 18% | 93% | |
| 5 | 71% | 75% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 100% | |
| 4 | 38% | 90% | Median |
| 5 | 42% | 52% | |
| 6 | 9% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9 April 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1048
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 5.06%