Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, 8–10 April 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 22.5–25.6% | 22.1–26.1% | 21.7–26.5% | 21.0–27.3% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 20.6% | 19.1–22.1% | 18.7–22.5% | 18.4–22.9% | 17.7–23.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.7–16.4% | 13.4–16.8% | 13.1–17.1% | 12.5–17.8% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.9–13.3% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.3–14.0% | 9.8–14.6% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.0–11.2% | 8.7–11.6% | 8.5–11.9% | 8.0–12.5% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.4–7.0% | 4.0–7.4% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.1–5.3% | 2.8–5.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.1–3.2% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.3% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.9% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.5% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 24 | 22–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–26 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 20 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 10 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 6% | 98% | |
| 22 | 19% | 93% | |
| 23 | 23% | 73% | |
| 24 | 46% | 50% | Median |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 20% | 97% | |
| 19 | 21% | 78% | |
| 20 | 47% | 57% | Median |
| 21 | 7% | 10% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 27% | 98% | |
| 14 | 16% | 71% | |
| 15 | 47% | 54% | Median |
| 16 | 5% | 7% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 6% | 100% | |
| 10 | 51% | 94% | Median |
| 11 | 11% | 43% | |
| 12 | 26% | 32% | |
| 13 | 6% | 6% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 35% | 94% | |
| 10 | 28% | 60% | Median |
| 11 | 31% | 32% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 24% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 43% | 76% | Median |
| 6 | 31% | 33% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 33% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 37% | 67% | Median |
| 5 | 29% | 30% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 78% | 92% | Median |
| 4 | 14% | 14% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 94% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 77% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 22% | 23% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 85% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 11% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 87% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 13% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 22–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–26 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 6% | 98% | |
| 22 | 19% | 93% | |
| 23 | 23% | 73% | |
| 24 | 46% | 50% | Median |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 27% | 98% | |
| 14 | 16% | 71% | |
| 15 | 47% | 54% | Median |
| 16 | 5% | 7% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 5 | 32% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 37% | 67% | Median |
| 7 | 30% | 31% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 3 | 18% | 99.1% | |
| 4 | 68% | 81% | Median |
| 5 | 13% | 13% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): ZDF
- Fieldwork period: 8–10 April 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1216
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.44%