Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 11–14 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 24.5% 23.3–25.7% 22.9–26.1% 22.6–26.4% 22.1–27.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 20.1% 19.0–21.3% 18.7–21.7% 18.4–21.9% 17.9–22.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.3% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.4% 4.2–6.8%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.5% 3.9–5.2% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.4–5.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.2% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.7%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 23 22–25 22–25 22–25 21–25
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 20 18–22 17–22 17–22 17–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 14–16 13–16 13–17 13–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 10–11 9–11 9–12 9–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 9 9–10 9–10 8–11 8–11
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.3% 100%  
21 1.3% 99.7%  
22 11% 98%  
23 51% 87% Median
24 18% 36%  
25 17% 18%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 6% 99.9%  
18 10% 94%  
19 23% 84%  
20 31% 61% Median
21 15% 30%  
22 15% 15%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 8% 100%  
14 15% 92%  
15 28% 77% Median
16 45% 50%  
17 4% 5%  
18 0.7% 0.7%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 9% 100%  
10 13% 91%  
11 74% 77% Median
12 3% 3%  
13 0.7% 0.7%  
14 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 4% 100%  
9 63% 96% Median
10 30% 33%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 83% 95% Median
6 12% 13%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 64% 98% Median
5 33% 34%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 83% 99.7% Median
4 16% 16%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 42% 100%  
2 57% 58% Median
3 1.1% 1.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98.5% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 32% 32%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 23 0% 22–25 22–25 22–25 21–25
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 0% 14–16 13–16 13–17 13–18
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–7

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.3% 100%  
21 1.3% 99.7%  
22 11% 98%  
23 51% 87% Median
24 18% 36%  
25 17% 18%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 8% 100%  
14 15% 92%  
15 28% 77% Median
16 45% 50%  
17 4% 5%  
18 0.7% 0.7%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 51% 99.6% Median
5 32% 48%  
6 16% 17%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 33% 99.9%  
5 59% 67% Median
6 7% 8%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations