Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 14–17 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 24.0% 22.5–25.6% 22.0–26.1% 21.7–26.5% 20.9–27.3%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.8% 18.3–21.3% 17.9–21.7% 17.6–22.1% 16.9–22.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 16.0% 14.7–17.5% 14.4–17.8% 14.1–18.2% 13.5–18.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 10.0–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.4–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 9.0–11.2% 8.7–11.6% 8.5–11.9% 8.0–12.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.6% 3.8–7.1%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.6–6.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.6% 0.9–2.9%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.7%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 23 21–24 21–25 21–25 19–26
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 19 17–20 17–21 16–21 16–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 16 14–17 14–17 13–17 13–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.7% 100%  
20 1.2% 99.3%  
21 8% 98%  
22 39% 90%  
23 30% 51% Median
24 12% 21%  
25 7% 10%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9%  
17 11% 97%  
18 15% 85%  
19 32% 71% Median
20 32% 39%  
21 7% 7%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 4% 99.9%  
14 19% 96%  
15 27% 77%  
16 37% 50% Median
17 12% 13%  
18 1.4% 1.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.9% 100%  
9 15% 99.1%  
10 46% 84% Median
11 20% 38%  
12 16% 18%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.8% 100%  
8 8% 99.2%  
9 28% 91%  
10 33% 64% Median
11 29% 30%  
12 1.4% 1.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 27% 99.6%  
5 61% 73% Median
6 10% 11%  
7 0.9% 0.9%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.3% 100%  
4 37% 98.7%  
5 40% 62% Median
6 20% 22%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 45% 99.8%  
4 39% 54% Median
5 14% 15%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 32% 100%  
2 65% 68% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 82% 98% Median
2 16% 16%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 89% 90% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 47%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 23 0% 21–24 21–25 21–25 19–26
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 16 0% 14–17 14–17 13–17 13–18
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–7

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.7% 100%  
20 1.2% 99.3%  
21 8% 98%  
22 39% 90%  
23 30% 51% Median
24 12% 21%  
25 7% 10%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 4% 99.9%  
14 19% 96%  
15 27% 77%  
16 37% 50% Median
17 12% 13%  
18 1.4% 1.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 18% 99.6%  
5 49% 82% Median
6 18% 33%  
7 14% 15%  
8 1.1% 1.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 17% 99.9%  
5 39% 83%  
6 30% 44% Median
7 14% 15%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations