Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 25–28 April 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.8–26.3% | 23.5–26.7% | 23.2–27.0% | 22.6–27.6% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.7% | 18.6–20.9% | 18.3–21.3% | 18.0–21.6% | 17.5–22.1% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.5% | 14.5–16.6% | 14.2–16.9% | 14.0–17.2% | 13.5–17.7% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.2–12.0% | 9.9–12.2% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.3–12.9% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 9.0–11.2% | 8.8–11.4% | 8.4–11.9% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.4–6.4% | 4.1–6.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.3% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.1–4.1% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.7% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.5–3.2% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.4% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 24 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 19 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 17–21 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 14–15 | 14–15 | 14–16 | 13–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 10 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 9–12 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 8% | 100% | |
| 23 | 11% | 92% | |
| 24 | 43% | 80% | Median |
| 25 | 36% | 38% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 9% | 98% | |
| 19 | 75% | 90% | Median |
| 20 | 13% | 15% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 14 | 11% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 85% | 88% | Median |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 59% | 98.5% | Median |
| 11 | 38% | 40% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 67% | 99.7% | Median |
| 10 | 24% | 33% | |
| 11 | 8% | 8% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 12% | 100% | |
| 5 | 81% | 88% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 12% | 100% | |
| 4 | 86% | 88% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 96% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 91% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 22% | 22% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.0% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 14–15 | 14–15 | 14–16 | 13–16 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 8% | 100% | |
| 23 | 11% | 92% | |
| 24 | 43% | 80% | Median |
| 25 | 36% | 38% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 14 | 11% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 85% | 88% | Median |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 91% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 12% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 86% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 25–28 April 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2006
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.75%