Opinion Poll by YouGov, 25–28 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 26.0% 24.8–27.3% 24.4–27.7% 24.1–28.0% 23.5–28.6%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 20.5% 19.4–21.7% 19.1–22.1% 18.8–22.4% 18.3–23.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.2% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.8–6.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.7%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 24–26 23–26 23–26 22–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 20 19–21 19–21 18–21 17–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 12–15 12–15 12–15 12–15
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–11
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.8% 100%  
23 6% 99.1%  
24 37% 94%  
25 24% 57% Median
26 31% 33%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.5% 100%  
18 3% 99.5%  
19 40% 97%  
20 23% 57% Median
21 32% 34%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 100%  
12 16% 99.7%  
13 42% 84% Median
14 30% 42%  
15 12% 13%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 30% 99.9%  
11 26% 70% Median
12 41% 44%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 4% 100%  
9 33% 96%  
10 42% 62% Median
11 20% 20%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 7% 100%  
5 54% 93% Median
6 39% 40%  
7 0.6% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 9% 100%  
5 70% 91% Median
6 21% 21%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 45% 100%  
4 42% 55% Median
5 12% 12%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98.5% 100% Median
2 1.4% 1.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 90% 90% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Last Result, Median
1 44% 44%  
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Last Result, Median
1 20% 20%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 0% 24–26 23–26 23–26 22–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 0% 12–15 12–15 12–15 12–15
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.8% 100%  
23 6% 99.1%  
24 37% 94%  
25 24% 57% Median
26 31% 33%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 100%  
12 16% 99.7%  
13 42% 84% Median
14 30% 42%  
15 12% 13%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 9% 100%  
5 52% 91% Median
6 39% 40%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 45% 100%  
5 41% 55% Median
6 13% 13%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations