Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 9–10 May 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.4–27.8% | 21.6–28.7% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.7% | 18.2–21.4% | 17.7–21.9% | 17.3–22.3% | 16.6–23.1% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.6–16.5% | 13.2–17.0% | 12.9–17.4% | 12.3–18.1% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.9% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.3% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 24 | 23–26 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 21–28 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 19 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–23 | 16–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 3% | 96% | |
| 23 | 27% | 93% | |
| 24 | 25% | 66% | Median |
| 25 | 29% | 42% | |
| 26 | 3% | 13% | |
| 27 | 7% | 10% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 6% | 94% | |
| 18 | 30% | 87% | |
| 19 | 46% | 57% | Median |
| 20 | 5% | 11% | |
| 21 | 2% | 6% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 23 | 3% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 9% | 96% | |
| 14 | 38% | 86% | Median |
| 15 | 21% | 49% | |
| 16 | 25% | 28% | |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 21% | 99.4% | |
| 11 | 35% | 78% | Median |
| 12 | 33% | 43% | |
| 13 | 7% | 11% | |
| 14 | 3% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 42% | 95% | |
| 10 | 47% | 53% | Median |
| 11 | 5% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 53% | 98.9% | Median |
| 5 | 41% | 45% | |
| 6 | 3% | 4% | |
| 7 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 37% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 6 | 43% | 45% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 32% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 59% | 68% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 44% | 100% | |
| 2 | 53% | 56% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 43% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 57% | 57% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 61% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 39% | 39% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 69% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 31% | 31% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 23–26 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 21–28 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 3% | 96% | |
| 23 | 27% | 93% | |
| 24 | 25% | 66% | Median |
| 25 | 29% | 42% | |
| 26 | 3% | 13% | |
| 27 | 7% | 10% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 9% | 96% | |
| 14 | 38% | 86% | Median |
| 15 | 21% | 49% | |
| 16 | 25% | 28% | |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 42% | 93% | Median |
| 6 | 46% | 51% | |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 52% | 92% | |
| 6 | 36% | 40% | Median |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–10 May 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.19%