Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 3–14 May 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 22.5% | 20.9–24.2% | 20.4–24.7% | 20.0–25.1% | 19.3–26.0% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.1% | 20.5–23.8% | 20.0–24.3% | 19.7–24.7% | 18.9–25.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 17.0% | 15.5–18.5% | 15.1–19.0% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.1–20.1% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.4% | 9.6–12.8% | 9.3–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.6% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.3–8.1% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.0–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.8–2.9% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.4% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 21 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 18–24 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 20 | 37% | 98% | |
| 21 | 30% | 61% | Median |
| 22 | 16% | 31% | |
| 23 | 14% | 15% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 10% | 98% | |
| 20 | 35% | 88% | |
| 21 | 31% | 54% | Median |
| 22 | 20% | 23% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 14 | 23% | 99.1% | |
| 15 | 11% | 76% | |
| 16 | 24% | 65% | Median |
| 17 | 36% | 41% | |
| 18 | 4% | 5% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 8% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 42% | 92% | |
| 11 | 33% | 50% | Median |
| 12 | 16% | 17% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 24% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 21% | 75% | |
| 10 | 53% | 55% | Median |
| 11 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 36% | 96% | |
| 6 | 34% | 60% | Median |
| 7 | 25% | 25% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 22% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 67% | 78% | Median |
| 5 | 10% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 13% | 100% | |
| 3 | 49% | 87% | Median |
| 4 | 37% | 38% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 18% | 100% | |
| 2 | 81% | 82% | Median |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 92% | Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 70% | 70% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 13% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 18–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 14–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 20 | 37% | 98% | |
| 21 | 30% | 61% | Median |
| 22 | 16% | 31% | |
| 23 | 14% | 15% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 14 | 23% | 99.1% | |
| 15 | 11% | 76% | |
| 16 | 24% | 65% | Median |
| 17 | 36% | 41% | |
| 18 | 4% | 5% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 41% | 96% | |
| 5 | 46% | 55% | Median |
| 6 | 8% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 19% | 96% | |
| 5 | 42% | 77% | Median |
| 6 | 34% | 35% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–14 May 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1032
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.96%