Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 12–16 May 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 24.7% | 23.4–26.6% | 23.0–27.1% | 22.6–27.5% | 21.9–28.3% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 20.3% | 19.1–22.1% | 18.7–22.5% | 18.3–22.9% | 17.6–23.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.9% | 14.7–17.5% | 14.4–17.8% | 14.1–18.2% | 13.5–18.9% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 10.9% | 10.0–12.3% | 9.6–12.6% | 9.4–12.9% | 8.9–13.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 9.9% | 9.0–11.2% | 8.7–11.6% | 8.5–11.9% | 8.0–12.5% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.0–7.4% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.7% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.7% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 24 | 24–25 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–26 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 20 | 19–20 | 19–20 | 19–21 | 16–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 15–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 4% | 96% | |
| 24 | 59% | 93% | Median |
| 25 | 25% | 34% | |
| 26 | 8% | 9% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 19 | 25% | 98% | |
| 20 | 68% | 72% | Median |
| 21 | 4% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 3% | 93% | |
| 15 | 64% | 90% | Median |
| 16 | 22% | 26% | |
| 17 | 4% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 17% | 98% | |
| 11 | 69% | 81% | Median |
| 12 | 12% | 12% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 84% | 98% | Median |
| 10 | 11% | 13% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 81% | 88% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 14% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 82% | 85% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 92% | 93% | Median |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 27% | 100% | |
| 2 | 69% | 73% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 22% | 22% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 24–25 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–26 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 15–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 4% | 96% | |
| 24 | 59% | 93% | Median |
| 25 | 25% | 34% | |
| 26 | 8% | 9% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 3% | 93% | |
| 15 | 64% | 90% | Median |
| 16 | 22% | 26% | |
| 17 | 4% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 69% | 88% | Median |
| 5 | 17% | 20% | |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 26% | 96% | |
| 5 | 66% | 70% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–16 May 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1205
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.59%