Opinion Poll by Forsa, 13–19 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 24.0% 22.8–25.3% 22.5–25.6% 22.2–25.9% 21.6–26.6%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 20.5% 19.4–21.7% 19.1–22.1% 18.8–22.4% 18.3–22.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 21–25 21–25 21–25 21–26
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 19 19–21 18–21 18–22 17–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 13–16 13–16 13–16 12–17
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 9–12 9–12 9–13
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 10 10–11 9–11 9–12 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 2 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 100%  
21 10% 99.8%  
22 45% 90% Median
23 27% 45%  
24 8% 18%  
25 10% 10%  
26 0.9% 0.9%  
27 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.7% 100%  
18 7% 99.3%  
19 60% 93% Median
20 10% 32%  
21 18% 22%  
22 4% 4%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.2% 100%  
13 14% 98.8%  
14 21% 85%  
15 53% 64% Median
16 11% 11%  
17 0.5% 0.5%  
18 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 7% 99.8%  
10 41% 93%  
11 40% 52% Median
12 11% 12%  
13 0.7% 0.7%  
14 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 100%  
9 9% 99.6%  
10 42% 91% Median
11 44% 49%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 8% 100%  
5 46% 92% Median
6 45% 46%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 37% 100%  
4 52% 63% Median
5 10% 10%  
6 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 10% 100%  
3 79% 90% Median
4 11% 11%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 91% 96% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 69% 100% Median
2 31% 31%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 90% 92% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 78% 78% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 0% 21–25 21–25 21–25 21–26
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 0% 13–16 13–16 13–16 12–17
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 100%  
21 10% 99.8%  
22 45% 90% Median
23 27% 45%  
24 8% 18%  
25 10% 10%  
26 0.9% 0.9%  
27 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.2% 100%  
13 14% 98.8%  
14 21% 85%  
15 53% 64% Median
16 11% 11%  
17 0.5% 0.5%  
18 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.7% 100%  
5 37% 99.3%  
6 50% 62% Median
7 12% 12%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.6% 100%  
3 23% 99.4%  
4 73% 77% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations