Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 20–22 May 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 23.0% | 21.5–24.6% | 21.1–25.1% | 20.7–25.5% | 20.0–26.3% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 20.5% | 19.1–22.1% | 18.7–22.5% | 18.3–22.9% | 17.6–23.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.7–17.4% | 14.3–17.8% | 14.0–18.2% | 13.4–18.9% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.5–13.6% | 10.2–13.9% | 9.7–14.6% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.0–11.2% | 8.7–11.6% | 8.5–11.9% | 8.0–12.5% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.6% | 4.3–6.9% | 3.9–7.4% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.8–5.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.6–2.3% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.9% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.6% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 21 | 20–23 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 19–25 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 20 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 43% | 95% | |
| 21 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 22 | 10% | 41% | |
| 23 | 23% | 31% | |
| 24 | 2% | 8% | |
| 25 | 6% | 6% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 17 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 18 | 9% | 95% | |
| 19 | 23% | 86% | |
| 20 | 17% | 63% | Median |
| 21 | 43% | 46% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 23% | 96% | |
| 15 | 50% | 73% | Median |
| 16 | 10% | 23% | |
| 17 | 10% | 13% | |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 10 | 9% | 99.1% | |
| 11 | 19% | 90% | |
| 12 | 61% | 71% | Median |
| 13 | 10% | 10% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 8 | 7% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 17% | 93% | |
| 10 | 65% | 75% | Median |
| 11 | 7% | 10% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 65% | 92% | Median |
| 6 | 24% | 27% | |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 21% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 72% | 79% | Median |
| 5 | 6% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 18% | 100% | |
| 3 | 73% | 82% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 16% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 84% | Median |
| 3 | 7% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 82% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 17% | 18% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 99.0% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 86% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 20–23 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 19–25 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 43% | 95% | |
| 21 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 22 | 10% | 41% | |
| 23 | 23% | 31% | |
| 24 | 2% | 8% | |
| 25 | 6% | 6% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 23% | 96% | |
| 15 | 50% | 73% | Median |
| 16 | 10% | 23% | |
| 17 | 10% | 13% | |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 30% | 98% | |
| 6 | 58% | 68% | Median |
| 7 | 9% | 10% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 25% | 97% | |
| 4 | 62% | 72% | Median |
| 5 | 11% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 20–22 May 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1195
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.48%