Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 2–6 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 23.0% 21.5–24.6% 21.0–25.0% 20.7–25.4% 20.0–26.2%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 21.3% 19.8–22.9% 19.4–23.3% 19.1–23.7% 18.4–24.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 16.0% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–18.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.8–13.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.8% 7.9–12.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.7% 4.9–6.6% 4.7–6.9% 4.5–7.1% 4.1–7.6%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–3.0%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 20–23 20–23 20–25 19–25
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 20 19–22 19–23 18–23 18–23
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 16 14–17 13–17 13–17 12–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–12
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 9 9–10 9–10 8–11 7–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.9%  
20 10% 99.2%  
21 29% 90%  
22 29% 61% Median
23 27% 32%  
24 1.5% 5%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 100%  
18 5% 99.7%  
19 18% 95%  
20 29% 77% Median
21 7% 48%  
22 35% 41%  
23 6% 6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.4% 100%  
13 7% 98.6%  
14 12% 91%  
15 24% 79%  
16 33% 55% Median
17 21% 22%  
18 0.4% 0.6%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.8% 100%  
9 35% 99.2%  
10 31% 64% Median
11 11% 33%  
12 22% 22%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.6% 100%  
8 3% 99.4%  
9 51% 96% Median
10 42% 45%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 66% 98% Median
6 30% 32%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 15% 99.8%  
4 74% 84% Median
5 10% 10%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 46% 99.9%  
4 48% 54% Median
5 6% 6%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 14% 100%  
2 79% 86% Median
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 96% 99.0% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 89% 95% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 82% 82% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.5% 1.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 0% 20–23 20–23 20–25 19–25
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 16 0% 14–17 13–17 13–17 12–18
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 3–6 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.9%  
20 10% 99.2%  
21 29% 90%  
22 29% 61% Median
23 27% 32%  
24 1.5% 5%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.4% 100%  
13 7% 98.6%  
14 12% 91%  
15 24% 79%  
16 33% 55% Median
17 21% 22%  
18 0.4% 0.6%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 56% 98%  
6 32% 42% Median
7 10% 11%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 5% 99.9%  
4 18% 95%  
5 74% 77% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations