Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 10–16 June 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 23.0% | 21.9–24.1% | 21.6–24.4% | 21.4–24.7% | 20.9–25.2% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.1% | 21.1–23.2% | 20.8–23.5% | 20.5–23.8% | 20.0–24.3% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 13.1–14.9% | 12.9–15.2% | 12.7–15.4% | 12.3–15.9% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.2–11.8% | 10.0–12.1% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.5–12.7% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.3–10.8% | 9.1–11.0% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.5–11.6% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.3–6.5% | 5.2–6.7% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.8–7.2% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.3% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.2% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 22 | 21–23 | 21–23 | 21–23 | 20–24 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 20–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 13–14 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 10 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 21 | 10% | 98.5% | |
| 22 | 74% | 89% | Median |
| 23 | 13% | 14% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 6% | 100% | |
| 20 | 17% | 94% | |
| 21 | 34% | 77% | Median |
| 22 | 40% | 43% | |
| 23 | 3% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 70% | 95% | Median |
| 14 | 16% | 25% | |
| 15 | 8% | 9% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 55% | 96% | Median |
| 11 | 40% | 41% | |
| 12 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 9 | 24% | 99.1% | |
| 10 | 70% | 75% | Median |
| 11 | 5% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 66% | 99.7% | Median |
| 6 | 28% | 34% | |
| 7 | 5% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 38% | 100% | |
| 4 | 46% | 62% | Median |
| 5 | 16% | 16% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 13% | 100% | |
| 4 | 83% | 87% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 94% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 64% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 36% | 36% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 90% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–23 | 21–23 | 21–23 | 20–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 13–14 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 21 | 10% | 98.5% | |
| 22 | 74% | 89% | Median |
| 23 | 13% | 14% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 70% | 95% | Median |
| 14 | 16% | 25% | |
| 15 | 8% | 9% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 14% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 82% | 86% | Median |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 44% | 98% | |
| 5 | 40% | 55% | Median |
| 6 | 15% | 15% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): RTL n-tv
- Fieldwork period: 10–16 June 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2502
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.26%