Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 13–16 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 23.0% 21.8–24.2% 21.5–24.6% 21.2–24.9% 20.6–25.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 21.5% 20.3–22.7% 20.0–23.0% 19.7–23.4% 19.2–23.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.5% 10.6–12.5% 10.4–12.8% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.3–11.9% 8.9–12.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.3%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 21 21–22 21–23 20–23 20–24
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 21 20–22 20–22 19–22 19–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 14–16 14–17 14–18 14–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–11
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 3% 99.9%  
21 66% 97% Median
22 25% 31%  
23 4% 5%  
24 1.3% 1.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 3% 99.9%  
20 42% 97%  
21 37% 55% Median
22 19% 19%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 47% 99.8%  
15 11% 53% Median
16 33% 42%  
17 5% 9%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.8% 100%  
10 12% 99.2%  
11 51% 87% Median
12 34% 36%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 24% 99.9%  
10 43% 76% Median
11 33% 33%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.1% 100%  
5 62% 98.9% Median
6 37% 37%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 36% 100%  
4 62% 64% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 21% 99.9%  
4 46% 79% Median
5 33% 33%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 49% 100%  
2 51% 51% Median
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 99.5% 99.7% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 64% 64% Median
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 32% 32%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 21 0% 21–22 21–23 20–23 20–24
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 0% 14–16 14–17 14–18 14–18
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 3% 99.9%  
21 66% 97% Median
22 25% 31%  
23 4% 5%  
24 1.3% 1.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 47% 99.8%  
15 11% 53% Median
16 33% 42%  
17 5% 9%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 4% 99.9%  
5 30% 96%  
6 65% 66% Median
7 1.0% 1.0%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 30% 100%  
4 42% 70% Median
5 28% 28%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations